This year, Democrats saw successful midterms results across the country, but that has proven to be particularly true in the nation’s most populous state. In Orange County especially, the results of the elections have inundated once-Republican areas, making the GOP more of a political idea than a reality in California. The victory of Democrat Gil… Continue »

View the polling here View the presentation here A recording is available here Today, the NAACP and Advancement Project national office joined with the African American Research Collaborative to provide the first comprehensive analysis of how Black voters voted this cycle and why. The new poll of mid-term voters, conducted by the African American Research… Continue »

Did President Trump’s strategy of making the 2018 election about immigration work? We have been documenting the growing chorus of experts and analysts who have concluded that Trump’s ugly exploitation of racial grievance and caravan hysteria backfired. Here are some of the latest takes:   Writing in the New York Times, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg… Continue »

The news that Rep. Mimi Walters (R-CA-45) has lost her re-election to Democratic challenger Katie Porter is the latest reminder of how Orange County, the former epicenter of American conservatism and Republican strength, has been transformed by the combination of Trump and Republican nativism and increased political engagement of the region’s increasingly diverse electorate. Meanwhile,… Continue »

In a must-read Washington Post column, Paul Waldman describes how Trump’s toxic anti-immigrant midterm strategy fell desperately short for the GOP in 2018 — but will be tried again in 2020. Waldman concludes: If Trump has any bit of political genius, it’s his ability to locate the worst in people — their fear, their envy,… Continue »

A consensus is taking hold: Trump’s closing argument – a toxic stew of lies, racism and fear mongering –- backfired. Races called yesterday help make the case. Martha McSally, a once-moderate Republican veteran compared to Senator John McCain, became awfully Trumpy on her way to being defeated by Kyrsten Sinema. Jeff Denham, a California Republican… Continue »

Perhaps McCarthy Will Do for the National GOP What He Did for the California GOP Kevin McCarthy, who rose to GOP prominence as a young gun promising to elect Californian Republicans, is now ready to ascend to his new role as Leader of House Republicans. But his reputation as a force for growth in the… Continue »

Following months of hand wringing about the Latino vote, the Associated Press reports that in this year’s midterms Latino early voting turnout increased by 174 percent compared to the 2014 midterms. In addition, Asian American and Pacific Islander voters increased by 218 percent and African-Americans by 157 percent. The article is below and available online… Continue »

With the Arizona Senate race now called for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, observers are highlighting how the focus by Trump and McSally on nativism and xenophobia backfired politically. Arizona joined Nevada and other states across the country in rejecting the GOP’s reliance on the ugly “caravan election” strategy. See below for key observations and excerpts: In… Continue »

Frank Sharry: “Whatever turnout effects this despicable strategy produced, it also produced a backlash that helped sweep suburban Republicans out of the House majority and out of winnable Senate seats” Just before the midterm elections, Politico ran a story titled, “’Trump has hijacked the election’: House Republicans in panic mode. A variety of GOP strategists… Continue »