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Polling

CA and NY Analyses of Latino Vote: Exit Polls Got it Wrong

Pieces in LA Times and NY Daily News Highlight New Precinct-Level Analyses in California and New York Find that Edison Exit Polls Overestimated Latino Support for Trump Two new op-eds detail precinct-level analyses of how the Latino electorate in California and New York actually voted in 2016, adding powerful evidence to the argument that the Edison exit polls overestimated … Continue reading »

ICYMI: “Study: Trump Fared Worse than Romney in Florida Hispanic Vote”

A new op-ed published in The Hill from Ali Valenzuela, an Assistant Professor of Politics and Latino Studies at Princeton University, and Tyler Reny, a Ph.D. student at the UCLA Department of Political Science, summarizes their recent analysis of voting precincts in Florida to explore how the state’s Hispanic electorate actually voted in 2016. Despite the national exit … Continue reading »

ICYMI: Democrats Need to Lean into, Not Run From, Defending Immigrants

In a new “Plum Line” piece, Greg Sargent predicts that: “No matter what, the Democratic Party isn’t going to back down from aggressively defending minority rights. It just can’t… [The Republican] agenda is likely to feature a major assault on various constituencies that will simply require Democrats to mount an aggressive, sustained defense of them.” The pro-immigrant … Continue reading »

New Poll: Americans Oppose Repealing DACA Program for DREAMers By 58-28% Margin

Washington, DC –  A new poll out today finds that by more than a 2:1 margin, 58%-28%, Americans oppose an effort to repeal the DACA program for DREAMers. Conducted by Global Strategy Group, the poll also finds that intensity is strongly against repealing DACA, with 45% of respondents “strongly opposed” to a DACA repeal, while … Continue reading »

Cities and Colleges Speak Out for Immigrants Against a Backdrop of Overwhelmingly Public Support for Legalization Over Deportation

Washington, DC – In the face of Donald Trump’s pledge to end the DACA program for DREAMers and ramp up deportations of undocumented immigrants, leaders from cities and college campuses across the country are speaking up. They are defending the contributions and futures of immigrants and pledging to resist a Trump Administration’s push to apprehend … Continue reading »

Latino Vote Share in 2016: How a Myth Becomes a “Fact”

Latinos turned out in record numbers this election, and supported Clinton over Trump by an historic margin (79% to 18%). Unfortunately, a faulty exit poll number is undermining Latinos’ strong performance this cycle. The exit poll is just one survey, it is not actual results  It is not fact, it is a survey providing an … Continue reading »

ICYMI: Pilar Marrero and La Opinión Understand the Latino Community – and Understand Why Exit Polls of Latinos Missed the Mark

Earlier today, we highlighted how leading English language media outlets and observers were recognizing that the national exit polls failed to accurately capture Latino voters’ record turnout and margins on behalf of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections.  We also want to highlight the work of a leading Latina journalist – Pilar Marrero of La Opinión – who gets … Continue reading »

Why it Matters that National Exit Polls (Again) Missed Latinos

Latinos Delivered, Yet Erroneous Exit Polls Unfairly Diminish Their Impact Latino voters showed up in record numbers and delivered record margins on behalf of Democratic candidates in 2016. Per the Latino Decisions election eve poll, Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 78-19% margin. However, if you rely on the national exit poll numbers … Continue reading »

2016 Latino and Asian American Election Eve Poll Findings: Immigration Top Issue for Latinos; Economy & Jobs Top Issue for Asian Americans

Below are select results on key issues and voting process questions released as part of the first installment of the Latino Decisions and Asian American Decisions election eve national and state polls. More details will be released as part of a 4 PM ET/1 PM PT press call this afternoon and full state data and national … Continue reading »

How Bad Polling of Latino Voters Contributed to the Surprise Regarding the Surge of Latino Voters

And how exit polling is likely to get the Latino vote wrong, too Many are surprised by the high turnout rates and evident determination of Latino voters to make their voice heard in this election. There are a number of factors for this surge: the growth of the Latino community; the hard work and sustained … Continue reading »