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2016 election

CA and NY Analyses of Latino Vote: Exit Polls Got it Wrong

Pieces in LA Times and NY Daily News Highlight New Precinct-Level Analyses in California and New York Find that Edison Exit Polls Overestimated Latino Support for Trump Two new op-eds detail precinct-level analyses of how the Latino electorate in California and New York actually voted in 2016, adding powerful evidence to the argument that the Edison exit polls overestimated … Continue reading »

ICYMI: “Study: Trump Fared Worse than Romney in Florida Hispanic Vote”

A new op-ed published in The Hill from Ali Valenzuela, an Assistant Professor of Politics and Latino Studies at Princeton University, and Tyler Reny, a Ph.D. student at the UCLA Department of Political Science, summarizes their recent analysis of voting precincts in Florida to explore how the state’s Hispanic electorate actually voted in 2016. Despite the national exit … Continue reading »

ICYMI: “Donald Trump Did Not Win 34% Of Latino Vote In Texas. He Won Much Less.”

Analysis of State Voting Data Continues to Show Strong Latino Support for Clinton, Contrary to National Exit Polls In a new Washington Post piece, Francisco Pedraza and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta challenge the national exit poll claim that 29% of Hispanic voters nationally, and 34% in Texas, supported Donald Trump. Analyzing data from 4,372 precincts across Texas, covering all regions of … Continue reading »

Why the Dispute over Latino Exit Poll Matters: Latinos Delivered in 2016 and One Exit Poll that Shows Otherwise Effectively Disenfranchises a Community at Risk

As we have noted, the controversy over accurate Latino polling is not a mere academic exercise or a story simply about methodology. At a time when the Latino and immigrant communities are vulnerable and fearful in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election, an accurate assessment of the community’s preferences in the 2016 elections and its electoral … Continue reading »

Latino Vote Share in 2016: How a Myth Becomes a “Fact”

Latinos turned out in record numbers this election, and supported Clinton over Trump by an historic margin (79% to 18%). Unfortunately, a faulty exit poll number is undermining Latinos’ strong performance this cycle. The exit poll is just one survey, it is not actual results  It is not fact, it is a survey providing an … Continue reading »

ICYMI: Pilar Marrero and La Opinión Understand the Latino Community – and Understand Why Exit Polls of Latinos Missed the Mark

Earlier today, we highlighted how leading English language media outlets and observers were recognizing that the national exit polls failed to accurately capture Latino voters’ record turnout and margins on behalf of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections.  We also want to highlight the work of a leading Latina journalist – Pilar Marrero of La Opinión – who gets … Continue reading »

Why it Matters that National Exit Polls (Again) Missed Latinos

Latinos Delivered, Yet Erroneous Exit Polls Unfairly Diminish Their Impact Latino voters showed up in record numbers and delivered record margins on behalf of Democratic candidates in 2016. Per the Latino Decisions election eve poll, Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 78-19% margin. However, if you rely on the national exit poll numbers … Continue reading »

¿Con cuál de sus caras gobernará Trump?

¿Cuál Donald Trump asumirá la presidencia en enero? ¿El de la visión divisiva, prejuiciosa y fatalista que vendió en la campaña; o el que tomará decisiones más pragmáticas forzado por la realidad? Una cosa es hacer campaña y otra es gobernar. Y sí, Trump llega a la Casa Blanca con la bendición de tener ambas … Continue reading »

El miedo de los tiranos

Atemorizar a un pueblo ha sido siempre la estrategia de los tiranos. Esa ha sido una constante a lo largo de la historia de la humanidad. Y si ese temor es cobardemente infligido en contra de la parte más vulnerable de una sociedad específica —digamos los inmigrantes no blancos en Estados Unidos—, utilizando a la … Continue reading »

State Leaders: “California Is – And Must Always Be – A Refuge Of Justice And Opportunity”

Yesterday, two California leaders said in a joint statement they “woke up feeling like strangers in a foreign land” following the election of Donald Trump, but pledged “not be dragged back into the past.” “We will lead the resistance to any effort that would shred our social fabric or our Constitution,” said Senate President Pro … Continue reading »