As the Gang of 8 immigration bill heads toward a final vote next week in the Senate, Charlie Cook at the Cook Report has an excellent reminder of why Republicans should play ball. They’re in serious demographic danger as a party, and they need to expand their tent. It’s unknowable how many votes passing immigration reform will win Republicans–studies have shown that 45% of Latino voters would consider voting for Republicans who took a strong stance on reform. But it’s almost certain that blocking reform will only keep the GOP firmly fixed in the doldrums they find themselves in now.
As Cook writes:
The 45.5 million Hispanics already in this country legally are registering to vote and are seeing the Republican Party as distinctly hostile. The more the GOP comes to be seen as fighting immigration reform, the more difficult it will be for Republican candidates to compete for this group of voters. Remember, 50,000 Hispanic citizens reach voting age every month.
He backs up his case with hard data: there’s one national example from the Bush years (compared to Mitt Romney’s dismal 75-23% rout among Latino voters in 2012). And there’s endless evidence from California, where Republicans used to be a credible statewide party but now essentially exist no more:
Two historic events should be recalled as this debate begins in earnest. As recently as 2004, when President Bush was seeking reelection, having run aggressive Spanish-language advertising and outreach efforts in both his presidential campaigns, he garnered 44 percent of the Latino vote nationwide, an important factor in his 51 percent to 48 percent victory over John Kerry. Bush aggressively sought and received Hispanic votes—not a majority, mind you, but a very respectable share. He realized that many Latino voters, particular those rising into the middle class, would consider voting for a Republican.
In the intervening years, conservative activists, and more than a few elected Republican officials, have taken positions on immigration and other issues that resulted in Mitt Romney winning just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote last year. In 2012 congressional races, House Republicans garnered only 30 percent of the Hispanic vote. Given that Bush in 2004 won 58 percent of the white vote, 1 point less than Romney’s 59 percent in 2012, it’s easy to see that a decent share of the difference between the Bush and Romney results came from Latino voters. Ditto for congressional Republicans, who lost the national popular vote for the House last year.
Second, going back still further, Republicans used to win statewide offices in California fairly routinely; that is, until then-Gov. Pete Wilson decided to use the immigration issue to enhance his reelection chances in 1994. Proposition 187 was a ballot initiative that effectively denied illegal immigrants access to public education, state-provided health care, and other social services. This was the first time in modern history that immigration played a central role in a major statewide election. The strategy served Wilson well that year; he defeated state Treasurer Kathleen Brown, the daughter of the late Gov. Pat Brown and sister of current Gov. Jerry Brown, 55 percent to 41 percent. Prop 187 passed 59 percent to 41 percent.
That election and proposition became a watershed for the Golden State’s Republican Party. Before Prop 187, the GOP carried California in nine of 12 post-World War II presidential elections, including six in a row from 1968 through 1988. Admittedly, the ticket was twice headed by Richard Nixon and twice by Ronald Reagan, both Californians. Even so, in 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis 51 percent to 48 percent in the state. Since Prop 187, Republican presidential candidates have lost California in all five elections.
In 16 California races for the U.S. Senate pre-Prop 187, Republicans and Democrats each won eight times. One Republican win occurred during President Johnson’s landslide victory over GOP Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964. Since 1994, Republicans have lost six Senate elections in a row.
How about the governorship? From the end of World War II until 1994, Republicans won the Governor’s Mansion six times, Democrats four. Democrats have won three times since; outlier Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger won that extraordinary recall election in 2003 and was reelected in 2006, although he was hardly an ordinary Republican. Those are the only post-Prop 187 GOP gubernatorial victories in the state.
And lieutenant governor? Republicans won the state’s No. 2 post six times between the end of the World War II and 1994; Democrats won it twice. Since 1994, Democrats have four victories to the GOP’s zero. For state attorney general, before Prop 187, Republicans won four times, Democrats five. Since then, Democrats have taken the post four times, Republicans zero. This same basic pattern holds up for secretary of state and state treasurer. Proposition 187 and Wilson’s reelection campaign’s use of it proved to be Pyrrhic victories for the GOP, all but killing off the Republican Party as a political force statewide.
That’s a lot of numbers, so we’ve put the California data into chart form. There’s a lot of zeroes in that third column:
| Statewide California Vote | Pre-Prop 187 | Post-Prop 187 | ||
| Republicans | Democrats | Republicans | Democrats | |
| US President (Carries CA) | 9 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| US Senate | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| CA Governor | 6 | 4 | 2* | 3 |
| CA Lieutenant Governor | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Attorney General | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
*Both terms won by Arnold Schwarzenegger—not exactly an average Republican. By the way, Schwarzengger supports the Gang of 8 and immigration reform.
Republicans should get one thing straight. They can choose to kill immigration reform this year–but the issue won’t go away. In every primary, presidential election, and legislative session from now until immigration reform is passed, the issue will come up again. Every time it does, people like Lou Barletta and Steve King will be around to say hateful things that turn even more voters permanently away from the GOP. Someday, Republicans will come to their senses, pass immigration reform, and take the issue off the table for once and all. But by then, it might be too late.
As Charlie Cook concludes, Republicans must “shut up or subdue the more extreme voices in their party” if they’re to pass reform. They have a real opportunity this year. Will they take it? Or keep shooting themselves in the foot?
