District-Level Polling Shows California Republicans Need to Lead on Bipartisan Immigration Reform

According to new polls from Magellan Strategies, the vast majority of likely voters in three Republican-held districts—CD-10, CD-21, and CD-22—support immigration reform that creates a path to citizenship for 11 million aspiring Americans.  These findings confirm the results of hundreds of other surveys conducted over the past few years.

The Magellan Strategies polls reveal something more about the political dynamics behind immigration reform.  Americans are hungry for leadership, bipartisanship, and problem-solving.  Voters in these districts would have a more favorable opinion of Republicans and Democrats if they actually work together to pass immigration reform.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Republican voters are just as supportive of immigration reform as Democrats and Independents in these districts.  The hardcore anti-immigration voting bloc is simply not that large and not that powerful—even inside the GOP.

Survey: California’s 10^th Congressional District (Rep. Jeff Denham)^[i]

Seventy-two percent of likely 2014 voters in Rep. Denham’s district support immigration legislation^[ii] along the lines of HR 15, including 68% of Republicans.  Only 22% of voters oppose this type of immigration reform.  The citizenship component^[iii] of this legislation is supported by 69% of likely voters (75% of Republicans).

If Rep. Denham were to sponsor legislation along these lines, 43% of voters in CD-10 say they would be more likely to vote for him, while 25% say it would not change their vote either way.  Fifty percent of Latinos and 51% of Republicans say they would be more likely to vote for Denham if he sponsors the bill.

If Republicans and Democrats work together to pass this proposal, 54% of likely voters in this district—including 60% of Republicans—say they would have a better opinion of Republicans in Congress.  Only 19% of all likely voters and 16% of Republicans say it would give them a lower opinion of the GOP.

Voters in CD-10 also believe in democracy.  Fifty-four percent (including 60% of Independents) say that the Speaker of the House should hold an up-or-down vote on the immigration bill and let a bipartisan majority speak.  Only 33% say he should wait until a majority of Republican members specifically agree.  In a July 2013 Latino Decisions poll in 24 Republican-held battleground districts, 71% of Latino voters said that Speaker Boehner’s reliance upon the “Hastert Excuse” lowered their opinion of the GOP, and 62% said their opinion would improve if Boehner allows a bipartisan vote.

Fast Facts on CD-10

• Denham’s 2012 margin of victory: 5.4%
• Latino 2010 VAP: 34.9%
• 61% of all newly eligible voters in 2014  will be Latinos, Asians, or immigrants

Survey: California’s 21^st Congressional District (Rep. David Valadao)^[iv]

Seventy-seven percent of likely 2014 voters in Rep. Valadao’s district support immigration legislation along the lines of HR 15, including 75% of Republicans.  Only 18% of voters oppose this type of immigration reform.  The citizenship component of this legislation is supported by 69% of likely voters (74% of Republicans).

If Rep. Valadao were to sponsor legislation along these lines, 38% of voters in CD-21 say they would be more likely to vote for him, while 35% say it would not change their vote either way.  Forty-seven percent of Republican men and nearly 50% of Independent men say they would be more likely to vote for Valadao if he sponsors the bill.

If Republicans and Democrats work together to pass this proposal, 57% of likely voters in this district—including 63% of Republicans—say they would have a better opinion of Republicans in Congress.  Only 17% of all likely voters and 14% of Republicans say it would give them a lower opinion of the GOP.

Voters in CD-21 also believe in democracy.  Fifty percent say that the Speaker of the House should hold an up-or-down vote on the immigration bill and let a bipartisan majority speak.  Only 34% say he should wait until a majority of Republican members specifically agree.  In a July 2013 Latino Decisions poll in 24 Republican-held battleground districts, 71% of Latino voters said that Speaker Boehner’s reliance upon the “Hastert Excuse” lowered their opinion of the GOP, and 62% said their opinion would improve if Boehner allows a bipartisan vote.

Fast Facts on CD-21

• Valadao’s 2012 margin of victory: 16%
• Latino 2010 VAP: 65.8%
• 84% of all newly eligible voters in 2014  will be Latinos, Asians, or immigrants

Survey: California’s 22^nd Congressional District (Rep. Devin Nunes)^[v]

Seventy-four percent of likely 2014 voters in Rep. Nunes’ district support immigration legislation along the lines of HR 15, including 71% of Republicans.  Only 20% of voters oppose this type of immigration reform.  The citizenship component in this legislation is supported by 69% of likely voters (71% of Republicans).

If Rep. Nunes were to sponsor legislation along these lines, 35% of voters in CD-22 say they would be more likely to vote for him, while 41% say it would not change their vote either way.  Forty-four percent of Republican men and 46% of Independent men say they would be more likely to vote for Nunes if he sponsors the bill.

If Republicans and Democrats work together to pass this proposal, 57% of likely voters in this district—including 64% of Republicans —say they would have a better opinion of Republicans in Congress.  Only 17% of all likely voters and 14% of Republicans say it would give them a lower opinion of the GOP.

Voters in CD-22 also believe in democracy.  Fifty-six percent say that the Speaker of the House should hold an up-or-down vote on the immigration bill and let a bipartisan majority speak.  Only 32% say he should wait until a majority of Republican members specifically agree.  In a July 2013 Latino Decisions poll in 24 Republican-held battleground districts, 71% of Latino voters said that Speaker Boehner’s reliance upon the “Hastert Excuse” lowered their opinion of the GOP, and 62% said their opinion would improve if Boehner allows a bipartisan vote .

Fast Facts on CD-22

• Nunes’ 2012 margin of victory: 24%
• Latino 2010 VAP: 39.3%
• 65%  of all newly eligible voters in 2014 will be Latinos, Asians, or immigrants