Welcome to our 2018 election liveblog! Tune in starting Monday, November 5 as we post updates on voter turnout, election records, predictions, forecasts, results, and more.
Latino Decisions polling | Arizona results | California results | Florida results | Georgia results | Nevada results | Texas results
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A few key takeaways from the poll:
Across demographics — Latino, African American, Asian American and Pacific Islander, Native American, and White — voters resoundingly rejected President Trump and the GOP’s closing argument of hostility, racism, and division.
- Trump and the Republicans are using toxic rhetoric to try and divide us from one another:
- Latino: 75%
- African American: 87%
- Asian American and Pacific Islander: 74%
- Native American: 69%
- White: 50%
- In 2018, many Republicans made attacks on immigrants’ part of their campaigns. It’s obvious we need to reform our immigration policies, but calling immigrants rapists and gang members accomplishes nothing. Congress should work together on bipartisan immigration reform and put the issue to rest, and address important issues like improving wages, lowering the cost of health care so we have more money in our pockets.
- Race
- Latino: 87%
- African American: 95%
- Asian American and Pacific Islander: 84%
- Native American: 81%
- White: 85%
- Identity
- Republican: 67%
- Independent: 87%
- Democrats: 94%
- Men: 77%
- Women: 82%
- Race
- Americans support the Dream Act
- Latino: 85%
- African American: 81%
- Asian American and Pacific Islander: 72%
- Native American: 71%
- White: 64%
2018 was a referendum on Trump. Reactions and emotions to President Trump were a driving factor for voters in the 2018 elections. A majority of voters of all races and ethnicities were upset by Trump, not inspired, and were motivated to vote.
- Angry
- Latino: 73%
- African American: 79%
- Asian American and Pacific Islander: 66%
- Native American: 61%
- White: 57%
- Total: 62%
- Disrespected
- Latino: 72%
- African American: 83%
- Asian American and Pacific Islander: 67%
- Native American: 57%
- White: 47%
- Total: 54%
- Encouraged friends or family to register or vote in the midterms
- Latino: 77%
- African American: 79%
- Asian American and Pacific Islander: 75%
- Native American: 66%
- White: 66%
Wednesday
Good morning! Check out our updated Wall of Shame!
Also read our take on the 2018 elections. As our Executive Director Frank Sharry said:
Trump and the GOP closed the 2018 cycle with a desperate and dangerous argument. They stoked fear, spread lies and incited racial panic among their hardcore base. But this unprecedented mix of mendacity and racism mostly did not work. Yes, Trump held his superfans in deep red states and districts. But the Trump and Republican reliance on xenophobia mostly backfired. A majority coalition of people of color, young people and suburban whites won the popular vote, swept the Democrats into control of the House of Representatives, rebuilt the ‘Blue Wall’ by winning governorships in states that Trump won in 2016 – such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – and defeated many of the most anti-immigrant candidates, from Kris Kobach in Kansas to Lou Barletta in Pennsylvania to Corey Stewart and David Brat in Virginia to Dana Rohrabacher in California. Add the huge advances in local races and in contests for control of state legislatures, and 2018 was something like a blue wave. The American people, led by people of color, turned out in huge numbers to vote against hate and racism and for a tolerant and welcoming country. This coalition is now in strong shape to compete in 2020.
Tuesday
11:57 PM ET
Big losses tonight from the anti-immigrant types:
https://twitter.com/TheToddSchulte/status/1060020943135916032
The race-baiting, anti-immigrant, caravan strategy is looking like a huge fail in the House. CLF & NRCC ran nasty ads against Davids, Kirkpatrick, Delgado, Brindisi, Spanberger, Finkenauer, Axne. All Dem wins.
— Nick Gourevitch (@nickgourevitch) November 7, 2018
11:35 PM ET
Sen. Claire McCaskill has conceded the Missouri Senate race to Republican Josh Hawley.
Claire McCaskill has conceded the Missouri Senate race to Josh Hawley, per Hawley's camp
— Rebecca Buck (@RebeccaBuck) November 7, 2018
11:23 PM ET
Latino Decisions election eve polling from California, Nevada, and Arizona:
10:34 PM ET
Doug Ducey (R) has won the Arizona Governor’s race:
NBC News: Doug Ducey (R) re-elected AZ-GOV
— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 7, 2018
10:23 PM ET
MSNBC has called the House for Democrats, while CNN has called the Senate for Republicans. From Latino Decisions:
10:14 PM ET
Republican Kevin Cramer has picked up Heidi Heitkamp’s Senate seat in North Dakota:
NBC News projects Kevin Cramer will defeat Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Republican gain in the Senate
— Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) November 7, 2018
MSNBC has called the Texas Senate race for Ted Cruz.
#Breaking Senator Ted Cruz has been re-elected in Texas defeating Democrat Beto O'Rourke, a rising star who wanted to become the party's first senator in Texas in 30 years.
Live updates: https://t.co/yXc1eOmOkD pic.twitter.com/aBGgjkEL4d
— BBC North America (@BBCNorthAmerica) November 7, 2018
Latino Decisions polling from Arizona and Nevada:
9:58 PM ET
Major wins in Kansas:
https://twitter.com/DianneNora/status/1060003513063927809
AND KRIS KOBACH, anti-immigrant extraordinaire, LOSES:
NBC News: Laura Kelly projected winner in Kansas governor. Kris Kobach goes down.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 7, 2018
Frank Sharry on Kobach’s Stunning Defeat
Washington, DC – The following is a statement by Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice.
Kris Kobach, one of the leading anti-immigrant voices in American politics, lost in a stunning upset today in the race for Kansas Governor.
He has a long history of vilifying immigrants and pushing repressive policies. He has inflicted pain on millions. It finally caught up with him.
Thank you, Kansas, for standing up to hate and division and standing up for decency and fairness.
9:33 PM ET
Another Dem pickup, in Colorado:
#CO06: Jason Crow (D) defeats Rep. Mike Coffman (R). Dem PICKUP. This district voted 50%-41% for Clinton in 2016.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 7, 2018
Democrat Jared Polis, former Rep. has won the Governor’s race in Colorado. His opponent, Republican Walker Stapleton, is joining our Wall of Shame.
.@ABC News can project that Democratic Rep. Jared Polis has won the Colorado governors race
He will be the first openly gay governor in U.S. history
— Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) November 7, 2018
Fox News says Democrats have won the House.
9:05 PM ET
In Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn has been elected to the Senate over Democrat Phil Bredesen.
NBC News projects Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., defeats former Gov. Phil Bredesen, D, in #TNSEN
— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) November 7, 2018
Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) has lost to Republican challenger Mike Braun, a Republican pickup.
.@ABC News can project that IN Sen. Joe Donnelly has lost to Republican challenger Mike Braun
First GOP pick-up in the Senate of the night
— Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) November 7, 2018
9 PM ET
Democrat Joe Manchin has been reelected to the Senate from West Virginia.
NBC News: Joe Manchin re-elected in WV-SEN
— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 7, 2018
The Texas polls have closed. From Latino Decisions:
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows the most important issues impacting African Americans, AAPIs and Latinos in #Texas. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/2HOZXS1ef7
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows African Americans, AAPIs and Latinos in . #Texas prefer @BetoORourke over @tedcruz for senate. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/GeXvaYasqv
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows 66% of AAPI voters in #Texas say Trump's racist statements & policies will cause a major setback to the progress made in recent years by AAPIs. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/hWVN5ziQZL
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
8:04 PM ET
The Pennsylvania Senate race has been called, with Lou Barletta losing
Lou Barletta, one of the nastiest anti-immigrant Republicans (and that's saying something), long-time BFFs with Kobach, has already been declared the loser in PA-Senate. Trump really wanted his acolyte to win. Nope
— Joe Sudbay (@JoeSudbay) November 7, 2018
Pennsylvania Rejects Trump’s Fellow Xenophobe Lou Barletta
The following is a statement from Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, reacting to the loss of Lou Barletta in the Pennsylvania Senate race:
Just because the Pennsylvania Senate race wasn’t close shouldn’t diminish its significance.
Lou Barletta is about as Trumpy a candidate as there is. As mayor of Hazleton, he became a nativist firebrand. As a member of Congress, he has been an anti-immigrant stalwart. As a candidate, he was one of Trump’s favorites. Running against an unapologetically pro-immigrant incumbent, Senator Robert Casey, in a state that Trump won just two years ago, the voters of Pennsylvania have soundly rejected Trump’s guy.
The Pennsylvania results mirror what we’re seeing across the country. Voters are delivering an electoral rebuke of candidates who ran on racism and xenophobia instead of racial unity and solving problems.
Congrats to Senator Casey. Adiós, Lou Barletta.
7:44 PM ET
Barbara Comstock, another GOPer who has run anti-immigrant ads, has lost her race in VA-10. The America’s Voice statement:
Corey Stewart and Barbara Comstock Follow the Trump/Gillespie Playbook and Lose Big
The following is a statement from Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, reacting to initial results in Virginia:
Corey Stewart and Barbara Comstock followed President Trump’s playbook. They stoked fear about immigrants. Both lost big.
Last year, Ed Gillespie tried the same strategy and lost by a whopping 9%. Back then, this defeat surprised many, because pundits predicted Gillespie’s xenophobic strategy would work. Steve Bannon predicted a Gillespie victory, too, telling the New York Times that “I think the big lesson for Tuesday is that, in Gillespie’s case, Trumpism without Trump can show the way forward. If that’s the case, Democrats better be very, very worried.”
It seems evident the people of Virginia are just not interested in Trumpism, with or without Trump. And right now, it’s not the Democrats who are very, very worried.
We’ve started our Wall of Shame!
7:02 PM ET
One of the first major calls of the night — anti-immigrant extremist Corey Stewart has lost to Tim Kaine in Virginia. The America’s Voice statement coming soon…
Latino Decisions election eve polling from Florida and Georgia has come in:
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows who African Americans, AAPIs and Latinos support in the Florida governor race. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/qO0PvQJmvT
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows the most important issue impacting African Americans, AAPIs, Latinos and Whites in #Florida. Take a look ⬇️ https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/u0zmbmGP00
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll shows who African Americans, AAPIs and Latinos support in the #Florida Senate race. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/OsH4yugs7L
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that 59% of #Florida voters agree that Trump's racist statements & policies will cause a major setback to the progress made in recent years by immigrants & minorities. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/0cL18PbVPX
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that AAPI voters in #Georgia prefer @staceyabrams over @BrianKempGA. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/PG7JGlWo2t
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that 93% of African American voters in #Georgia prefer @staceyabrams over @BrianKempGA. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/NLxtdZGqEE
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows the most important issues impacting the AAPI community in #Georgia. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/7UrHCr0jTV
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 7, 2018
6:37 PM ET
AP/FOX VotecastHealth care was at the forefront of voters’ minds: 26 percent named it as the most important issue facing the country in this year’s midterm elections. Smaller shares considered immigration (23 percent), the economy (19 percent), gun policy (8 percent) and the environment (7 percent) to be the top issue.
The economy, however, was not the key issue for many voters this midterm election. It ranked third, behind health care and immigration but well ahead of gun policy. The economy mattered more to Republicans than Democrats.
5:45 PM ET
Polls are beginning to close and results are coming in!
Latino Decisions has released their first round of Election Eve polling. View results and the press release here.
Check out some of the results from all voters from battleground districts:
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows the most important issue impacting African Americans, AAPIs, Latinos and Whites in House battleground districts. Take a look ⬇️ #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/03Mtgaaejp
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that 58% of voters in House battleground districts agree that Trump and the GOP are using toxic rhetoric to divide us from one another. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/2WzlUHnLJi
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that 52% of voters in . battleground districts say Trump and the GOP are normalizing sexism and sexual harassment against women in America. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/QgSx4FQAzS
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that 57% of voters in House battleground districts say Trump's statements & policies will cause a major setback to the progress made in recent years by immigrant & minority communities. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/TQPzhPskRP
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
American Election Eve poll by @LatinoDecisions shows that Donald Trump has made 62% of voters in House battleground districts angry #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/NTuDh3GjfU
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
American Election Eve Poll by @LatinoDecisions shows 81% of voters agreed that standing up for all Americans of all backgrounds was an important reason to vote. #ElectionEve2018 pic.twitter.com/Nx8jYOS9NJ
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
New @LatinoDecisions election eve polling shows 73% of Latino voters voted for Democratic House candidates. #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/cLdUyDFaB4
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
New @LatinoDecisions election eve polling shows 90% of African American voters voted for Democratic House candidates pic.twitter.com/RuYy5sysFK
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
New @LatinoDecisions election eve polling shows 72% of AAPI voters voted for Democratic House candidates #ElectionEve2018https://t.co/fDibaLYaxQ pic.twitter.com/MsVYje4Zpf
— America's Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 6, 2018
9:46 AM ET
Happy Election Day! Check out this map of poll closing times at Daily Kos:
Projections from FiveThirtyEight:
We’ve also frozen our generic ballot average, and our running our final model run now!
The generic ballot average wound up at D +8.7. That’s *not* a good number for Republicans. The D lead ticked up from 8-ish to 9-ish on the last set of polls to come in. https://t.co/nSPeKmmioC pic.twitter.com/OSzxievNok
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 6, 2018
our final @FiveThirtyEight forecast in every Senate + House race in one cute lil waffle chart
keep your 👀 on it as we start getting results tonighthttps://t.co/4CxLMLb3xH pic.twitter.com/NMl3jwDT1e
— Ella Koeze (@ellawinthrop) November 6, 2018
Monday
5:45 PM ET
Early voting records have been set in at least seventeen states across the nation. In some states, early voting was double what it was in 2014; in others, voting is rivaling 2016 turnout. View more here.
Washington Post: Early vote totals in at least 17 states already surpass 2014 turnout at this point https://t.co/un7Cf8nC2h (FL, NV, DE, GA, IN, LA, MD, MN, MT, NM, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA, WS, WV)
— America’s Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 5, 2018
Early voting in Georgia climbs to record high for midterms, more than 2 million, shattering 2014’s previous record of 945,507 https://t.co/6Hl6kiBWvv
— America’s Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 5, 2018
Texas setting all kinds of records — 4.8 million have voted early, rivaling 2016 numbers. One projection says 8.2 million total Texans may vote, rivaling 2016’s tally of just under 9 million and dwarfing 2014’s 4.7 million. Voter turnout of young adults is up 500%.
— America’s Voice (@AmericasVoice) November 5, 2018
2:18 PM ET
GOTV weekend was this past Saturday and Sunday, and tens of thousands of volunteers this week showed up to canvass across the country. View our blog here.
WOW!!! #GOTV volunteers packed the house for my @EmergeVirginia sister @SpanbergerVA07 this afternoon in Henrico.
Everyone in the room who was *not* featured in this photo would have made for an incredible canvass, let alone this!
This is what a winning campaign looks like! pic.twitter.com/GMp9Ut1hUj— Danica Roem (@pwcdanica) November 3, 2018
Read our 2018 election content below:
- Virginia Republicans Revert To Racist, Anti-Immigrant Ads — Again
- Trump’s White Working Class Gender Gap Is Made Worse By His Failed and Racist Approach to Immigrants and Immigration
- Let’s Not Forget: Trump Closed Hard With Xenophobia in 2018, and it Backfired Badly
- ICYMI: “Republicans Have Learned Nothing From the Midterms”
- Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions in the New York Times: Trump Thinks He’s Still Winning on Immigration
- Washington Examiner: “Leading GOP pollster: Trump’s focus on immigration sunk House majority”
- Trump’s Push for a Government Shutdown Ignores 2018 Midterm Results, Divides GOP, and Unites Democrats
- GOP Pollster: Republicans Drowned Out Economic Message with Closing Argument Focused on Immigration and the Caravan
- ICYMI: “Trump’s Alienation of Younger Voters is a Generational Gamble for GOP”
- USA Today Op-Ed: Republicans embraced Trump’s immigration scare tactics and paid a high political price
- ICYMI: Politico Magazine on Florida Democrats’ Hispanic Problem
- Despite Voter Backlash to GOP’s Xenophobia, Trump and Republicans Double Down on Xenophobia
- Listen to the “A is for America” Podcast with Adriana Ruggiero and Matt Barreto
- Kevin McCarthy Pushed Trump’s Anti-immigrant Agenda and Lost Half of California’s Republican House Seats
- Albert Hunt: “Hoist a Glass, Democrats. Demographic Destiny Is Back.”
- “Donald Trump Is Losing, And He Knows It”
- In 2018, Orange Is The New Blue
- NEW POLLING: Voting Behavior and The Impact of The Black Vote in 2018 Midterm Elections
- Experts Agree: In 2018 Midterms, Xenophobia Backfired and Latino Voters Turned Out
- Listen to the “A is for America” Podcast with Sylvia Manzano of Latino Decisions