There’s been a lot of speculation in political circles about what kind of political impact the shutdown would have on the Republican Party. Yesterday, the Cook Political Report got DC buzzing with this tweet:
Today’s ratings changes: CA31, CA41, CO06, FL22, MI03, MI07, MT-AL, NE02, NJ02, NJ03, NM02, NY23, OH06, PA08, WV03 http://t.co/WNKgkgBPYN
— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) October 17, 2013
The Cook Political Report is followed obsessively by political insiders. So, this news reverberated. And, it matters to immigration. Ten of the 14 seats that were updated as moving toward the Democrats are “Latino influence” House seats as defined by Latino Decisions. Those ten are:
- CA-31 Gary Miller (R) Toss Up to Lean D
- CA-41 Mark Takano (D) Likely D to Solid D
- CO-06 Mike Coffman (R) Lean R to Toss Up
- FL-22 Lois Frankel (D) Likely D to Solid D
- MI-03 Justin Amash (R) Solid R to Likely R
- NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo (R) Solid R to Likely R
- NJ-03 Jon Runyan (R) Solid R to Likely R
- NM-02 Steve Pearce (R) Solid R to Likely R
- NY-23 Tom Reed (R) Likely R to Lean R
- OH-06 Bill Johnson (R) Likely R to Lean R
We paid particular attention to two of the races, CA 31, a seat held by Gary Miller (R) and CO 06, the seat of Mike Coffman (R). As noted above Miller (someone who has yet to lean into immigration) has moved from Toss Up to Lean D, while Coffman (who supports immigration reform with citizenship) moved Lean R to Toss Up.
So far, neither of those members have taken any action to insure that immigration legislation will move in the House. They’re not cosponsoring HR 15. They’re not cosponsoring any bills. In fact, the only action we’ve seen from them is their vote for Steve King’s legislation to deport DREAMers back in June.
Yesterday, we laid out five reasons Republicans should make immigration next on the Congressional agenda. And Latino Decisions held a press briefing on what the politics of immigration means for Republicans in California (like Miller) and nationwide. The new rankings from Cook Political Report should give Miller and Coffman more impetus to take some concrete actions to get reform done.