Washington, DC – Just as the trajectory of the presidential race has altered in recent weeks, so have the politics of immigration. Only a month ago, Republicans were passing out and holding up “Mass Deportation Now” signs on the floor of their Milwaukee convention. They have defined the unsparing mass deportation of millions of long-settled immigrants as their top priority for a Trump second term – a vision undergirded by the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 blueprint for a Trump presidency, as well as through the endorsement of such a plan by the GOP’s senior leadership in Washington.
Democrats are presenting a sharply different vision of America, as the “USA” signs held by the DNC crowd underscores. And from the Harris/Walz ticket to the DNC platform to down ballot candidates across the country, Democrats are growing more comfortable on how to address immigration issues and draw sharp contrasts with the dark and damaging GOP vision. For example, during President Biden’s keynote speech at the DNC on Monday night, he noted, “unlike Trump, we will not demonize immigrants, saying … [they] – ‘poison the blood of America’ … ‘poison the blood of our country.’ Kamala and I are committed to strengthening legal immigration, including protecting DREAMers and more.” At the DNC this week and beyond, Democrats have the opportunity to press these distinctions and present a vision of a modern immigration policy, one that embraces legalization and legal immigration avenues along with an orderly and controlled border. As Democrats gather at the DNC and prepare the post-Labor Day homestretch, below are three key points regarding the current politics of immigration.
- Point 1: Democrats are coalescing around a strategy on immigration – As the Harris/Walz ticket and other key Democrats are modeling, they are calling for a ‘both/and’ approach to legal immigration, legal status, and a secure and orderly border that contrasts with the GOP; and they are calling out Republicans’ obstruction and dangerous politicization of the issue.
- Point 2: The clear contrasts with Trump and GOP should include details on the costs and consequences for all Americans of Trump’s proposed mass deportation agenda and the sharply different visions for how to treat families, Dreamers and long-settled immigrants.
- Point 3: The ‘both/and’ approach to addressing concerns about the border and fixing the immigration system lines up with the American people and is a winning approach that has the support of the majority of voters, including Latino voters and those in battleground states.
Here are the facts and details on the above points:
Point 1: Democrats are coalescing around a strategy on immigration – As the Harris/Walz ticket and other key Democrats are modeling, they are calling for a ‘both/and’ approach to legal immigration, legal status, and a secure and orderly border that contrasts with the GOP; and they are calling out Republicans’ obstruction and dangerous politicization of the issue.
- At recent campaign rallies and interviews and in affiliated ads and videos, both Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have been defining themselves as seeking reforms to our broken immigration system and supporting policies that pair an orderly border with legal pathways and opportunities for long-settled immigrants. President Biden’s keynote speech, excerpted above, the DNC platform and key down ballot Democrats have similarly been modeling this approach.
- While the border/asylum focus has been garnering most of the attention (and includes some restrictive measures we don’t support) the strategy modeled by Harris/Walz – as well as Rep. Tom Suozzi in his closely watched special election earlier this year – also involves support for vitally-needed legal channels and citizenship pathways for long established immigrants who already live and work here.
- The final piece of the strategy involves defining contrasts with Trump and Republicans and calling out their preference for immigration politics over solutions and their reliance on extreme policies and dangerous anti-immigrant conspiracies. This includes a consistent focus on Trump’s cynical obstruction of the bipartisan, enforcement-heavy Senate bill – which both Vice President Harris and President Biden have done – and should continue to highlight the unrelenting right wing fearmongering about immigrants and reliance on dangerous conspiracies (see the recent America’s Voice Substack analysis by Zachary Mueller, “The GOP has Spent $350 Million + on Nativist TV Ads, Will it Deliver at the Ballot Box?” underscoring the extent of the right wing reliance on dangerous nativist conspiracies)
Point 2: The clear contrasts with Trump and GOP should include details on the costs and consequences for all Americans of Trump’s proposed mass deportation agenda and the sharply different visions for how to treat families, Dreamers, and long-settled immigrants.
- Donald Trump and allies have been making clear that his proposed “largest deportation operation in the history of our country” would be unsparing and indiscriminate in targeting immigrants (in a recent op-ed published in English and Spanish by Univision, AV Executive Director Vanessa Cárdenas highlighted why Trump’s pledge is “The most consequential immigration – and economic – issue of the 2024 campaign.”)
- The more people see and hear what “mass deportation” really means for the American economy and for American communities, the more damaging it will be for the Republican Party and their candidates. Polling that America’s Voice commissioned for our internal use indicates that the GOP mass deportation policy has two major vulnerabilities: triggering a reminder of Trump’s family separation policies and raising fears about the impact on the economy.
- Leading economists are consistent in detailing that if Trump’s mass deportations proceeded, vital American industries reliant on immigrant workers would be gutted with major ripple effects on all Americans, while millions of homeowners, entrepreneurs, essential workers, healthcare providers, and teachers and their families would be uprooted from U.S. communities.
- For example, George Mason University economist Michael A. Clemens argued that the promises being made to American workers of higher wages and available jobs if immigrants are removed are out of step with economic reality: “Their deportation will instead prompt U.S. business owners to cut back or start fewer new businesses, in some cases shifting their investments to less labor-intensive technologies and industries, while scaling back production to reflect the loss of consumers for their goods.”
- Just this week, Politico featured a roundup on the economic damage of the proposed mass deportation, with some eye-popping statistics including: “For every one million immigrants seized and deported from the U.S., roughly 88,000 native-born workers were driven out of employment due to businesses adjusting capital and operations to account for the reduction of labor, according to a 2023 University of Colorado study.”
- At the first presidential debate, CNN moderator Jake Tapper asked Trump to specify his mass deportation vision and plans, yet Trump refused to answer and pivoted to tell lies about immigrants. Democrats and other observers should keep pressing Trump and allies to answer the question – the American people deserve to hear specifics about his destabilizing, radical plan.
- Democrats also should continue to draw contrasts between two starkly different visions – one that recognizes immigrants are vital to the American economy and society and that we should keep American families together and protect Dreamers and other long-settled immigrants. In contrast, the GOP embraces a dark vision of ending DACA and separating families with a massively destabilizing deportation agenda involving military roundups in American communities and massive deportation camps.
Point 3: The ‘both/and’ approach to addressing concerns about the border and fixing the immigration system lines up with the American people and is a winning approach that has the support of the majority of voters, including Latino voters and those in battleground states.
- The American public, including Latino voters and broad majorities of battleground state voters, endorse a balanced approach that pairs an orderly border alongside a pathway to citizenship for immigrant families, instead of a mass deportation-only alternative. Among recent polls and public opinion studies:
- Poll of Latino voters in battleground states show support for balanced immigration vision instead of enforcement-only: As Greg Sargent highlights in The New Republic, a new poll of Latino voters in battleground states conducted by BSP Research for Somos PAC finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 55-37 percent among these voters and support for a balanced approach. As Sargent writes: “It’s also sometimes said that Trump’s restrictionist immigration policies and promises of mass deportations actually appeal to Latino voters who have settled in the U.S. and oppose undocumented migration under Biden. But in the poll, a message pairing increased border security with a path to legalization for various groups of undocumented immigrants living here—which Harris favors and Trump opposes—leads 65 percent of Latinos to view Harris more favorably.”
- Semafor highlights a memo and battleground polling from the Immigration Hub – 69-31% support for legalization over mass deportation. As Semafor writes: “66% of battleground voters support balancing border security with protection for Dreamers … The poll also shows 66% support allowing undocumented spouses and children of US citizens to stay in the country legally. Further data shows Trump’s promises of mass deportations aren’t popular with key battleground voters. Only 31% of independents in those states support a national effort to remove undocumented immigrants, while 69% of independents say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants who meet certain requirements to stay here legally.”
- Equis Research, a leading firm on understanding Latino voters, finds detailing mass deportation specifics is important part of Democrats efforts to persuade Latino voters: “In general, the best fights are over the candidates’ and parties’ proposed policies for long-term immigrants, or people who have been living and working in the United States for a long time. When candidates have examples or proof points to show they’ve delivered on their immigration promises to voters, they should use them. Otherwise, it’s best to hit Republicans on their immigration policies that will affect long-term immigrants. In the current political environment, the best messaging strategy seems to be to go negative. Use negative messaging to tell voters about Trump’s plans for our immigration system and the way the GOP is “playing politics” with the border.
- Specifically, Equis Research recommends calling out Trump’s plans to deport “millions of immigrants who have been living and working here for decades” as an effective persuasion strategy. Both securing the border and pathways to citizenship are top of mind for Latino voters. Where positive messaging is needed, focus on Democrats’ balanced approach.’ Pair safety, order, and security with fair, humane treatment and legal pathways. Avoid solely messaging on securing the border – do not attempt to out-Trump Trump.”
Bottom Line
Conventional wisdom holds that immigration is a liability for Democrats and an essential asset for Republicans, despite the fact that the GOP strategy has failed to deliver victories on election day in every cycle since 2016. Democrats have the opportunity to continue to define themselves on immigration by drawing sharp contrasts between the parties’ stances. The liability of mass deportation and the extreme positions taken by Republicans makes them uniquely vulnerable if Democrats step up.
