Latino Decisions’ national election eve poll of Latino voters finds that nationally Latino voters support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a historically lopsided 79-18% margin – a 4:1 margin.
We are releasing this number now because preliminary and incomplete results of the national exit polls appear to suggest that Clinton leads Trump by a margin of 65-27% among Latino voters. We believe these preliminary results are wrong.
As we have said repeatedly, the national exit polls’ methodological shortcomings misrepresent Latino voters and other sub-populations. See here and here for recent analyses on the subject.
We will be releasing state results when polls close in each state and the full data set of national findings at 11 PM Eastern/8 PM Pacific. In addition, we will be holding a 1 PM Eastern/10 AM Pacific webinar and press call on Wednesday to discuss the Latino election eve polling and election results. The Latino Decisions Election Eve poll is sponsored by America’s Voice, SEIU, Mi Familia Vota, NCLR and Latino Victory Project.
Methodology
Latino Decisions completed 5,600 interviews with Latinos with strong turnout histories who reported having already voted, or reported being certain to vote in the November 8, 2016 presidential election. Interviews were conducted either on-line or via telephone with live callers, all of whom were bilingual, and both phone and web interviews were completed in the language of preference of the respondent. Respondents were reached on landline (40%) and cell phones (35%), or invited to complete the survey on the web (25%), between November 2-7, 2016 and interviews averaged 10 minutes in length. The results are weighted to match national Census demographics for Latinos, including national origin groups, age, education, place of birth, and gender.
The national sample (N=5,600) carries an overall margin of error of +/-1.8 percentage points. Florida has 800 completed interviews and carries a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points. The remaining individual states sampled — Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, New York, Nevada, North Carolina Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin, and Virginia – have 400 completed interviews and carry a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points. For more detail, see http://www.latinodecisions.com/2016-election-eve-poll/methodology
