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57% of Voters “Definitely” Plan to Vote Against Trump in 2020

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Trump: “We’re Getting Crushed”

A New York Times story by Maggie Haberman and Annie Karni reports that Trump has been railing internally about how he is losing the public battle over who’s to blame over the shutdown . After watching some of the coverage, he yelled, “We are getting crushed!”

Recently-released polls show that, for once, Trump is telling the truth:

A new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll finds:

  • 57% of voters say they would “definitely vote against” Donald Trump in 2020, while just 30% say they definitely would support Trump’s re-election. By party affiliation:
    • Democrats: 91% definitely voting against Trump, 5% definitely for Trump, 5% unsure;
    • Independents: 62% definitely voting against Trump, 25% definitely voting for Trump, 13% unsure;
    • Republicans: 69% definitely voting for Trump, 10% definitely voting against Trump, 21% unsure.
  • The re-election findings roughly mirror some of the shutdown-related numbers in the new poll:
    • 54% blame Trump for the shutdown while 31% blame congressional Democrats;
    • 57% believe that Trump is not doing enough to work with congressional Democrats.
  • 70% of Americans think “shutting down the government to reach policy consensus is a bad strategy” compared to only 22% who support that approach.

Pew Research polling on shutdown and border wall:

  • By a 58-40% margin, Americans oppose the border wall;
  • 88% of border wall opponents are opposed to granting Donald Trump’s request for wall funding, if that is the only way to end the shutdown — a strong endorsement of congressional Democrats’ unity and effort to stand strong against the wall;
  • Public disapproves of Trump handling of shutdown by 61-36% margin, including 53% who “strongly disapprove.”

Quinnipiac Poll on shutdown and border wall:

  • By a 63-32% margin, Americans oppose shutting down the government to force the funding of a border wall;
  • By a 63-30% margin, Americans support the Democratic proposal to reopen parts of the government not involving border security while wall-related negotiations would continue;
  • Americans blame Trump/GOP for shutdown, with 56% saying Trump and Republicans are responsible for shutdown versus 36% who say Democrats are responsible.

Other recent polls are consistent with these results:

  • Americans overwhelmingly blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown: When asked who is to blame for the shutdown, a host of recent polls find remarkably similar results:

As Democratic pollster Nick Gourevitch commented, “These numbers…on who’s responsible for the shutdown aren’t even close. In a hyper-partisan world, it takes real political malpractice to lose the blame game by 24 points.”