Five reasons the immigration backlash will help shape Tuesday’s results
Whatever happens on Election Day, we believe that the Trump administration’s violent, lawless and costly mass deportation agenda stands to be one of the most critical factors when it comes to the fight for the House. It’s already playing a role in early voting, including among Latino voters who cast their ballot for Donald Trump in 2024 and now feel his immigration enforcement actions have gone too far and are coming out in “staggering” numbers. Here are five reasons why we think the administration’s anti-immigrant ugliness will be a defining factor in which party ultimately holds the speaker’s gavel come January.
VOTERS HAVE SEEN WHAT ICE IS DOING
When mass deportation agents brutally killed U.S. citizens Renée Nicole Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis this year, their deaths reverberated far beyond the state. Their killings were part of a pattern of abuse that began in year one and has only grown deadlier in year two. There have been over 500 documented cases of U.S. citizens detained by mass deportation agents, including at least 70 children and teens. ICE is now arresting parents and labeling their children “unaccompanied”, and Brookings estimates more than 145,000 U.S. citizen children have had a parent detained by ICE since the administration began. Voters didn’t need a campaign ad to learn this, they saw firsthand – in their own neighborhoods, schools, and businesses.
MASS DEPORTATION IS INCREASING COSTS FOR AMERICAN FAMILIES
The 2024 campaign promise that mass deportation would lead to a more prosperous America was a wicked lie. America’s Voice’s End the ICE Tax report found that the administration’s surge cost an estimated 668,000 jobs. In Minnesota – ground zero of the bloody Operation Metro Surge – some immigrant-owned businesses said they lost up to 100% of their revenue. Russ Adams, manager for Minneapolis’ corridor recovery initiatives, called it “an economic crisis of catastrophic proportions.” In industries where immigrant labor matters the most – such as healthcare and agriculture – prices have risen the fastest: home health care is up 10.7% in a year, while fruits, vegetables, and milk have jumped between 6% and 32%. Voters connect the dots: by 62-38%, they say mass deportation is hurting the economy and raising costs.
THE MASS DEPORTATION AGENDA IS INCREASINGLY REJECTED BY VOTERS
As AV’s October polling memo documented, 56% of Americans now say Trump is going too far on deportations, his immigration approval has fallen to a second-term low of 38%, and Democrats now edge Republicans on trust in immigration – an issue Republicans led by double digits before 2024. Pew also found that ICE is now the least popular of 12 polled federal agencies, including the IRS. Even judges appointed by Trump have condemned ICE’s lawlessness, with a New York court last month rebuking the agency for lying and faking records. Officers were “inexperienced, possessed little understanding of the law and used ‘false testimony to conceal these failings,’” the judge ruled according to The New York Times. The issue Trump called his strongest has become a liability for him and every Republican tied to it.
LATINO VOTERS HAVE MOVED SHARPLY AWAY FROM REPUBLICANS
Latino voters now prefer Democratic control of Congress 59-35%, double the margin at this point in 2024. Democrats lead Hispanic likely voters 64-29% in an average of high-quality polls, up from a seven-point Harris lead. The shift is playing out district by district: in Texas’s 15th, a majority-Latino seat Trump carried by 18 points in 2024, Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Rep. Monica De La Cruz 51-44% among likely voters, and 57-40% among Latino likely voters. In Arizona, a Latina who voted for Trump in 2024 regrets her vote after seeing the effects of his agenda on her community. “There are a lot of people who are being harassed for the color of their skin, and that’s not right,” Sandra Ramírez told the AP. “I’ll never go Republican again.”
CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS CHAMPIONED MASS DEPORTATION. THEY OWN THE FALLOUT.
U.S. Reps. María Elvira Salazar (FL-27), Monica De La Cruz (TX-15), David Valadao (CA-22), and Gabe Evans (CO-8) all repeatedly voted to make ICE the nation’s highest-funded law enforcement agency by giving DHS $261 billion. But once these masked agents began to target their constituents – such as DACA recipients, farmworkers and other essential workers critical to their local economies – they laughably attempted to distance themselves from the agenda they funded no fewer than three times. Voters remember their actions. One Florida immigrant said that while Salazar “presented herself as our advocate” and “spoke about legalization, solutions and dignity,” she has “manipulated us all; she’s taken advantage of the uncertainty and fear that we live with.”
WHAT COMES NEXT
The polling has been unequivocal, with voters rejecting mass deportation month after month. In just a matter of hours, voters who have seen their communities targeted and harassed under the Trump administration’s anti-immigrant agenda will render their decision at the ballot box. The question for the next Congress is what comes after the election. In 2027, the debate turns to accountability for the immense harm done to our country and humane solutions to protect America’s immigrant communities and our nation’s economy. That must include a path to citizenship for the millions of our neighbors who have lived, worked, and raised families in the U.S. for decades, an approach that majorities across party lines already prefer over mass deportation.
