New polling shows voters agree that mass deportation is driving up costs for working families – and that voters are ready to hold Congress accountable
There are a lot of reasons for everything from oranges to housing costing much more lately, as we noted in our Aug. 6 report on what we call the “ICE Tax.” But a main one is something we warned about: the Trump administration’s mass deportation agenda, which is contributing to a jump in grocery prices, job losses in essential industries and costing some small businesses as much as 40% of their revenue.
THE FACTS ARE CLEAR AND THE VOTERS KNOW IT
Now, a new survey conducted by Grow Progress and unveiled by America’s Voice this week finds that American voters increasingly agree that Donald Trump and Stephen Miller’s mass deportation obsession targeting essential workers like farmworkers, construction workers and healthcare professionals is making their lives more expensive and putting daily necessities increasingly out of reach. The message is clear: Americans know who’s driving up costs, and they want it to stop.
Some key findings from the ICE tax survey below (and see the full memo here):
- Voters were 8 points more likely to agree that the deportation of essential workers is driving up the price of groceries, gas and childcare (51%, up from a 43% baseline).
- Voters were 8 points more likely to say they’d support a member of Congress who scales back the deportation of immigrant contributors to lower costs.
- The message cuts across the political map, with agreement that mass deportation is raising costs rising 15 points among Democrats and 13 points among political moderates, with smaller but still positive movement among independents (3 to 6 points).
- Latino voters showed the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group, with agreement that mass deportation is increasing costs, rising 18 points (from 35% to 53%).
- Among voters who did not vote in the 2022 midterms, agreement rose 12 points after hearing the message, from 39% to 51%. By comparison, voters who did vote in 2022 moved 5 to 7 points on the same question.
“This message works because it’s true,” said Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice. “Donald Trump promised to bring down costs. Instead, he’s spending billions of dollars terrorizing farmworkers, caregivers, and construction crews while families pay more at the checkout line, for home health care, for housing.”
The “End the ICE Tax” report from August found that prices are rising fastest in the categories that depend most on immigrant labor, including some of the fruits, veggies and dairy products that end up on our tables.
STATES AND INDUSTRIES RELYING ON ESSENTIAL IMMIGRANT WORKERS FEEL IT MOST
Apples are up 7.1%, fresh citrus is up more than 6%, and lettuce – already a risky enough purchase for many families due to an unprecedented cyclosporiasis outbreak – is up a whopping 32.1%. “Over half of all dairy workers are also immigrants, and dairy products have seen their prices increase well above the core inflation rate as well,” the report continues. “Fresh whole milk is up 9.0 percent and other fresh milk is up 5.5 percent, with 95 percent of each produced domestically.”
In the five states with the highest immigrant share of their labor force — California, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, and Florida — construction employment has fallen 1.3% while the rest of the country saw construction employment grow 3.3% over the same period. This totally avoidable economic distress is showing in Florida’s hospitality industry, with restaurants in Orlando losing an estimated 40% of revenue as immigrant staff members quit out of fear of being swept up and separated from their families.
And while Texas doesn’t rank in that top five, the pain described in the report has played out in regions within the state that have been severely impacted by the administration’s anti-immigrant policies. In the Rio Grande Valley, where mass deportation agents have carried out nearly one-fifth of the state’s total abductions, construction jobs fell 5% in the third quarter of 2025, the region’s largest quarterly drop on record. “The report also notes that new home prices are rising as construction slows due to a shortage of immigrant labor,” as the San Antonio Current highlighted.
“Business is down significantly,” Ronnie Cavazos, board president of the South Texas Builders Association, told The Texas Tribune. “If we continue on this trajectory, we will see a lot of businesses fail.”
A fresh wave of recent reporting confirmed the findings of our “End the ICE Tax” report. In The Bulwark, Adrian Carasquillo reports that mass deportation “isn’t helping lower the costs of housing, it appears to be driving it up,” with builders in the northeastern and western U.S. describing a “slaughter” that’s killing their businesses. In Wichita, Kansas – the state’s most populated city – the local economy has lost 2,240 jobs after mass deportation raids surged 360%, KCUR reports. Kansas City, meanwhile, has lost nearly 8,000 jobs following a nearly 95% increase in immigration-related arrests, the report said.
The Economic Policy Institute’s (EPI) new calculator also helps localize just how much struggling families all over the country are being forced to pay for the administration’s mass deportation obsessions:
We are projected to spend $268 BILLION on deportations — costing the average American taxpayer about $2,358 (according to @epi.org).But somehow we “can’t afford” to make sure hungry children can eat or ensure everyone, no matter their income, can access healthcare.Priorities.
— Robert Reich (@rbreich.bsky.social) 2026-08-18T21:15:05.555837Z
TAXPAYERS REJECT THE SOARING ANTI-IMMIGRANT BUDGETS
“In Minnesota, $4.4 billion in federal taxpayer dollars is being spent on detaining immigrants—many of whom are in the country lawfully—and even some U.S. citizens. That means, on average, every household in the state is paying roughly $2,000 to track down, intimidate, detain, or deport people,” EPI’s report said. “If that money were spent instead on programs proven to improve the lives of working families—education, health care, living wages—it could improve Minnesota communities dramatically.”
We noted last year that the massive $170 billion in funding that Congressional Republicans gave to mass deportation agencies could instead fund Head Start for nearly 14 years, feed our nation’s schoolkids for ten years, or solve homelessness 17 times over. But rather than coming to the rescue of working Americans drowning in bills, this summer, they gave these agencies another $70 billion – and with no guardrails.
When last year’s ugly budget law also cut $187 billion from the life-saving food assistance programs in order to help pay for tax cuts for billionaires, a $2,000 refund could go a long way in helping struggling families afford a visit to the grocery store. Instead, the loved ones of U.S. military service members are being detained and deported, U.S. citizens are having guns pointed in their faces during Kavanaugh stops, and children continue to be jailed at a notorious, for-profit prison. Liam Tadeo was on his way to a soccer game with his dad when they were abducted by ICE. He was detained at CoreCivic’s notorious Dilley Immigration Processing Center until his dad made the agonizing decision to be deported together in order to spare Liam from the risk of possible separation and prolonged detention.
“Kids should be playing soccer, going to school, not being arrested on the streets,” said Rep. Greg Casar.
“Voters are rejecting Trump and Stephen Miller’s mass deportation agenda and this polling shows they’re ready to hold Congress accountable,” Cárdenas continued. “As Americans pay a higher price for the cost of living, elected officials who support the ICE Tax will pay a higher price at the polls come this November. It’s time to end the ICE Tax.”
