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New Latino Polling: Trump on Track for Historically Low Performance & Helping to Drag Down GOP Brand

 

New nationwide polling of Latino voters, conducted by Latino Decisions and commissioned by America’s Voice, underscores that Donald Trump is on track for an historically low performance among Latino voters and that the overall Republican brand image among Latinos remains tarnished.

This is the second wave in a series of three Latino voter tracking polls conducted this cycle.  The first wave data can be found here.  A related poll on Latino voters’ views following the Supreme Court deadlock on DAPA and DACA expansion is available here.

Among the key findings in the new poll:

Donald Trump is on track for a historically low performance among Latino voters – Latino voters nationwide favor Hillary Clinton by a 70%-19% margin:When asked about the head-to-head matchup between the Clinton and Trump, Latino voters nationwide prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 70%-19% margin. This puts Trump on track to underperform Mitt Romney’s historically poor performance among Latino voters in 2012, when Latinos supported President Obama by a 75%-23% margin over Romney, according to Latino Decisions 2012 Election Eve polling (71%-27% in media-sponsored exit polls).

Trump’s net favorability among Latinos is -53 while Clinton’s is +39: When asked about candidate favorability, 74% of Latino voters have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, including 67% who have a “very unfavorable” opinion, compared to just 21%. who view Trump favorably – meaning that his net favorability is underwater by 53 percentage points. Comparatively, Hillary Clinton has a positive favorability rating among Latino voters in the new poll at a 68%-29% margin. At the vice presidential level, Republican VP nominee Mike Pence registers at 27% favorable vs. 41% unfavorable, while Democratic VP nominee Tim Kaine registers at 53% favorable vs. 19% unfavorable.

More than 3-of-4 Latino Voters Say it is “More Important” to Vote in 2016 than in 2012 – with Majority Saying the Reason is to “Stop Trump”: When asked if it is more important to vote in the 2016 elections compared to the 2012 elections, 76% of Latino voters say it is more important this year vs. only 4% who said more important in 2012 (19% said the same). When those saying 2016 was more important were asked a follow-up question to gauge “why,” a majority of 51% said to “stop Trump,” while 23% said to “support Clinton.” A second question gauged enthusiasm in 2016 vs. 2012, finding that 53% of respondents said they are more enthusiastic about this cycle compared to 31% who said they were more enthusiastic in 2012 (17% said the same).

The Republican Brand with Latino Voters is Deeply Damaged and Trump is Hurting GOP Brand: Approximately 3-of-4 Latino voters (73%) say the Republican Party “doesn’t care too much about Latinos” (45%) or that the GOP is “sometimes hostile towards Latinos” (28%), while just 21% say the Republican Party “truly cares about the Latino community.” When asked if Trump has made the Republican Party more welcoming to Latinos, less welcoming, or has had no effect, 70% of Latinos say “more hostile” vs. only 10% who say “more welcoming” (16% said “no effect”). Meanwhile, 58% of Latino respondents say that Hillary Clinton has made the Democratic Party “more welcoming” to Latinos vs. 10% who say “more hostile,” and 28% who say she hasn’t had an effect. Overall, 68% of respondents said Trump’s views on immigration and immigrants made them less likely to vote for Republican candidates this year (20% said “more likely”). Meanwhile, 64% said Clinton’s immigration views made them more likely to vote for Democrats vs. 20% who said “less likely.”

Congressional Democrats Favored in Generic Ballot Q By 67%-19% Margin Among Latino Voters Nationwide: Perhaps unsurprisingly given the state of the parties’ brand images, Latino voters prefer generic Democratic congressional candidates over generic Republican candidates by 67%-19% nationwide.

The Executive Action Programs DACA and DAPA Matter to Latino Voters: In a split sample question, 75% of Latino voters said Clinton’s support for the 2012 DACA program made them more likely to support Democrats, while 74% said Trump’s opposition to DACA made them less likely to vote Republican. By a 83%-14% margin, Latino respondents said they supported the DAPA program announced in November 2014. Meanwhile, by a 66%-30% margin, respondents disagreed with the Republican lawsuit that led to the 4-4 Supreme Court deadlock in the U.S. v Texas immigration case. Of note, 59% of respondents personally know an undocumented immigrant.

According to Sylvia Manzano, Principal of Latino Decisions, “Immigration has become a central issue that defines both the Democratic and Republican Party. Among Hispanic voters, 59% have friends, family members, and/or co-workers who are undocumented. These voters hear the scapegoating, the muddied and the clear policy propositions in a unique way. 76% of respondents believe that voting in this election is more important than the 2012 election, and among them, 51% say stopping Trump is the reason why.”

According to Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, “I have three takeaways from this poll: 1) Trump is in a very, very deep hole with Latino voters. Based on an analysis completed prior to this campaign, Latino Decisions estimated that a typical Republican presidential nominee would need to win between 42% and 47% of the Latino vote in order to be competitive. Due to the growth of the Latino community, this is up from the estimated 40% that George W. Bush – the last GOP nominee to win the popular vote – won in 2004. Trump currently garners only 19% of the Latino vote. 2) Latino interest in this election is pronounced. 76% think it is more important to vote in this election, with the top reason – by 51% of respondents – being that Latino voters want to stop Donald Trump. 3) This poll shows that Trump is a real drag on both the GOP brand and Republicans down ballot. 70% say that Trump has made the GOP more hostile to Latinos, and 68% say Trump’s immigration views make them less likely to vote for other Republican candidates. The bottom line: Trump is headed over the demographic cliff, and he seems likely to take the GOP with him.”

RESOURCES 

Read the poll toplines and access poll crosstabs at the Latino Decisions website

View the slide presentation from the national polling HERE

Access an audio recording of today’s call HERE