On June 16, 2015, Donald Trump launched his Presidential campaign by calling Mexicans drug dealers, criminals and “rapists.”
Some may have forgotten his remarks during the 16 months of insults that were to come, but Latino never did. Just take a look at what happened during the final night of early voting in Nevada last night.
According to the state’s political guru, Jon Ralston, Trump may have lost Nevada last night — and any feasible path to the Presidency — thanks to that wall of Latino voters that turned out in the state’s most populous, Democratic counties:
How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:
—-The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall — approaching 73,000 ballots — greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points.
As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%
So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.
Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.
Expert polling firm Latino Decisions and political observers provided some continued analysis of the night’s historic Latino turnout :
In 2012 the final polling avg. in Nevada was Obama +2.8. In reality he won by 6.7. That 3.9 points they missed by was bad Latino polling! pic.twitter.com/FJ0DHk1LE3
— Latino Decisions (@LatinoDecisions) November 5, 2016
On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That’s literally nuts.
— Steve Schale (@steveschale) November 5, 2016
Also if so a massacre of mainstream media ability to poll NV- again https://t.co/bJiu7HtJSK
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) November 5, 2016
One of many reasons why there’s a lot of uncertainty in polls this year. They don’t have a good grasp on the Hispanic vote. https://t.co/QVeYztf7sS
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
You heard it hear first: The inability of public pollsters to capture Hispanic voters is going to be the big story next Wednesday & Thursday https://t.co/Exhvgumv2s
— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) November 2, 2016
— Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) November 5, 2016
If Clinton wins, and she is highly likely to, the big story is going to be huge wave of Latino vote and college educated white women. @GMA
— Matthew Dowd (@matthewjdowd) November 5, 2016
Bottom line: in diverse states like NV, when more people vote, Democrats win. And tons of ppl are voting – including new Latinos in droves.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 5, 2016
Note to self: don’t piss off Latinos in Nevada.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 5, 2016
Numbers we’re seeing today starting to look like Hispanic Americans are going to be the ones to deport Donald Trump.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 4, 2016