Ahead of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, a new report from America’s Voice outlines the power and importance of the Latino vote in the key states of Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. The report follows new nationwide polling of Latino voters, conducted by Latino Decisions and commissioned by America’s Voice, which underscores that Donald Trump is on track for a historically low performance among Latino voters and that the overall Republican brand image among Latinos remains tarnished: more than 3-of-4 Latino voters (77%) say the Republican Party “doesn’t care too much about Latinos” (41%) or that the GOP is “sometimes hostile towards Latinos” (36%), while just 13% say the Republican Party “truly cares about the Latino community.”
Unfortunately for Republican down-ballot candidates, the Trump Effect is real and will likely hinder their chances. Conversely, Democrats need to be on the ground and invest in turning out Latino, APIA, and pro-immigrant voters if they want to maximize their share of the electorate.
See below for key takeaways from each state, and the entire report is available here.
Colorado:
Nearly half (46%) of Colorado’s immigrants are Mexican and, according to Latino Decisions, 65% of Colorado’s Latinos say they personally know an undocumented immigrant.
Between 2012 and 2020, there will be an estimated 168,606 additional eligible CO Latino voters.
Latino CO support for the GOP in national elections grew significantly between 1996 and 2008, peaking at 38%. In 2012, only 23% of Latinos voted for the GOP candidate.
Nevada:
NV Latino population has tripled since 1980, reaching 26% of NV’s population in 2012
In 2010, Sen. Reid earned 90% of the Latino vote, overcoming a tough re-election against Sharron Angle.
80% of Nevada Latinos said that Trump’s views on immigrants or immigration made them less likely to vote Republican.
Florida:
In 2016, Latinos will comprise more than 18% of the Florida electorate.
The projected number of Latinos turning 18 or becoming citizens between 2012 and 2016—411,000—dwarfs Obama’s margin of victory in 2012 of 74,000.
In a poll of Florida Latinos conducted by Latino Decisions in April of 2016, in a head-to-head between Trump and Clinton, 69% leaned toward Clinton while 18% leaned toward Trump.
