Washington, DC – With its unprecedented size and level of political engagement this cycle, the Latino vote has grown into one of the most important voting blocs to monitor on Election Day, especially in key battleground states. When tracking election returns tomorrow, here are several of the key Latino storylines to look for:
What will Latino vote look like compared to 2004? The Latino vote is expected to increase from 7.6 million in 2004 to 9.2 million this year and is growing not only in size, but in influence – especially in key battleground states. Efforts such as the We Are America Alliance have registered over 500,000 new citizen voters and mobilized one million to vote in 13 key battleground states.
|
2004 Election Results in States with Large Latino Populations |
||||
|
State |
2004 Presidential Result |
2004 Presidential Result: Latinos |
2004 Latino % of Electorate |
2004 Latino Turnout # |
|
AZ |
55-44 Bush |
43-56 Kerry |
12% |
269k |
|
CA |
45-54 Kerry |
32-63 Kerry |
21% |
2.69m |
|
CO |
52-47 Bush |
30-68 Kerry |
8% |
165k |
|
FL |
52-47 Bush |
56-44 Bush |
15% |
1.11m |
|
IL |
44-55 Kerry |
23-76 Kerry |
8% |
454k |
|
NM |
50-49 Bush |
44-56 Kerry |
32% |
268k |
|
NV |
51-48 Bush |
39-60 Kerry |
10% |
87k |
|
NY |
40-59 Kerry |
24-75 Kerry |
9% |
693k |
|
TX |
61-38 Bush |
49-50 Kerry |
20% |
1.59m |
|
NATIONAL |
51-48 Bush |
44-53 Kerry |
8% |
7.6m |
Will John McCain’s level of Latino support be closer to Bob Dole in ’96 or George Bush in ’04? An underreported story from the 2004 election was the role Latinos played in helping George W. Bush win reelection. According to the 2004 exit polls, 44% of the Latino vote supported Bush, including an outright victory among Latino Protestant voters. Bush’s level of Latino support has been the high-water mark for the Republican Party and was a significant upgrade from the 21% Latino support received by Bob Dole in 1996.
|
The Latino Vote in Recent Presidential Elections |
||
|
1996 Presidential Result: Latinos |
2000 Presidential Result: Latinos |
2004 Presidential Result: Latinos |
|
Clinton 72% – Dole 21% – Perot 6% |
Gore 62% – Bush 35% – Other 3% |
Kerry 56% – Bush 44% |
What’s Happening in the “Latino Battleground” States? Both presidential campaigns have spent heavily to target the large Latino electorates in CO, FL, NM, and NV. While Senator Obama has been winning the Latino vote in most battleground state and nationwide polling, a recent poll from NDN/Bendixen in these four states showed that “14 percent to 20 percent of the Hispanic electorate remains undecided, which translates into two percent to six percent of the statewide vote in each state-a percentage significant enough to tip dead even states into one camp or the other.” Similarly a more recent NALEO poll found that 11 percent of likely Latino voters in battleground states were undecided.
“Tomorrow’s elections will show that Latino and immigrant voters have arrived as a potent political force with the ability to tilt elections,” said Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice. “These voters have a real stake in this country and are eager to make their voices heard.”
Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, and Paco Fabián, Communications Director, are both available to provide on the record comment regarding election results. To schedule an interview, please contact Paco Fabián at (202) 412-9969.
America’s Voice — Harnessing the power of American voices and American values to win common sense immigration reform.
http://www.americasvoiceonline.org/
###
