Washington, DC — Donald Trump’s pledge to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history” is the most consequential immigration and economic policy proposal of the 2024 campaign and has the potential to rip apart both families and the U.S. economy, as America’s Voice has been highlighting.
As Harris and Walz sit down with CNN’s Dana Bash for an interview this evening, it is the Trump/Vance ticket that has been dodging the most consequential immigration and economic questions, despite the importance of the issue. At the Trump/Biden debate, Trump refused to answer direct questions from Bash’s colleague Jake Tapper, and both Trump (see here) and JD Vance (see here) have consistently refused to answer key questions.
Several important columns and reported pieces in MSNBC and the Deseret News (UT) are spotlighting the potential devastation of mass deportations and the refusal of the Trump team to answer essential questions, while a new economic research analysis released today underscores the potential economic devastation to the U.S. economy and consumers of mass deportation.
According to Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice:
“Despite the significance of the issue, Donald Trump and his allies refuse to detail the costs, consequences, or key details of their unsparing mass deportation plan. The reason? They know that the more Americans learn about the costs and consequences of forcing millions of people out of the country and out of our economy, the more unpopular the Trump/Vance agenda becomes. The new research paper from the University of New Hampshire paints a grim picture of these economic consequences.
We look forward to hearing Vice President Harris and Governor Walz lean in on the contrast and outline their vision for immigration, centered on providing a path to legalization for our neighbors and co-workers, strengthening legal immigration, and managing migration effectively, including an orderly border.”
Key observers have pointed out the lack of details in Trump’s plan and the costs and consequences of his mass deportations proceeding:
A research paper published today by the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation” (by Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger) looks at a broad swath of current and historic social science and economic research and concludes:
“The deportation of substantial numbers of unauthorized people, most of whom work, would, self-evidently, have substantial negative consequences for those deported and their families. Research shows that mass deportation would also negatively impact the American economy and people in several ways:
- The U.S. economy would noticeably contract as it lost the contributions of unauthorized immigrants.
- Jobs for American workers would decline. Instead of native-born Americans having new work opportunities opened up for them and replacing deported unauthorized workers, research shows that overall employment would fall for the native-born.
- Instead of more competition for workers driving up wages, for most Americans wages would face downward pressure as jobs were lost and the economy shrinks.
- Tax revenues would decline.
- The government would spend many billions of dollars capturing, detaining, processing, and deporting people.
- As domestic production of goods and services dropped, inflation would increase.”
Columnist Paul Waldman writes in a MSNBC piece:
“The idea [mass deportation] has an understandable if vulgar appeal: If people are here illegally, just make them leave. If that’s unpleasant for them, it’s no more than they deserve for violating immigration laws. But if we consider what would be involved in mass deportation, it becomes clear that Trump is promising something that’s shocking in its brutality, overwhelming in its logistical challenge and unprecedented — not only in American history, but in the history of the world …
When Trump talks about mass deportation, he speaks as if every undocumented immigrant’s name and address are on a list and law enforcement can just knock on their doors and politely remove them. But the reality is far different. The most widely accepted number for the undocumented population is 11 million, though that is an approximation (Trump and other Republicans claim it’s twice as high or more). How is the government going to find and remove 11 million people if it doesn’t know who they are?
… Trump says he wants to deploy the military to do the job. And how would that work? Would soldiers descend on states and cities with large immigrant populations and go house to house demanding that everyone show their papers?”
Deseret News, “Trump’s deportation plan is missing key details“:
“Anyone frustrated with Harris, though, should also have questions for Trump — who, a year into his second campaign for president, has yet to offer coherent plans as to how he’ll carry out major parts of his platform.
One of his promises is to carry out ‘the largest deportation operation in American history.’ Last week, as the Democratic convention came to a close, Trump visited the southern border in Sierra Vista, Arizona. My colleague Brigham Tomco was there and asked Trump how he planned to carry out that deportation operation.
Trump’s answer: “We’ll work with locals — and they’re going to bring them (migrants) to us — and we’ll get them over the border, and we’ll make arrangements with the countries, and the countries will accept them back, and if they don’t accept them back, we do no trade with those countries, and we charge them big tariffs.” But Trump’s plan is missing some important details. A few thoughts:
Local law enforcement can’t just ‘bring’ migrants to ICE officials. Whether local law enforcement — what Trump meant when he said “locals,” he later specified — can enforce immigration law has long been a matter of debate. Can a local police officer apprehend an individual because they are in the country illegally? No, because they have no authority to enforce immigration law, which is controlled by the federal government …
Trump doesn’t take into account the cost of deporting millions of people — the bus tickets, chartered flights, nights in detention centers and so on, all paid for by U.S. taxpayers. Nor does it consider the cost of shrinking the U.S. economy by deporting workers. Nor does it account for the humane arguments against mass deportation, especially the mass deportation of peaceful, law-abiding individuals. Trump’s order would likely begin with this group, as a significant backlog of unexecuted judge-issued deportation orders exists, but these individuals are still in the U.S. because they have not had a run-in with law enforcement.
So, yes, Trump’s plan to carry out the ‘largest deportation operation’ ever may appeal to some voters, but the implementation would get very messy.”
