New Boston Globe op-ed from prominent expert Michael Ettlinger highlights costs and consequences of mass deportation on U.S. economy, consumers, and communities
Washington, DC — Donald Trump’s pledge to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history” is the most consequential immigration and economic policy proposal of the 2024 campaign. A new Boston Globe op-ed from leading expert Michael Ettlinger, “Trump’s plan to vaporize the economy,” analyzes prior U.S. efforts to deport people in great numbers and the economic consequences, which, spoiler alert, are all bad for native workers and immigrants alike. Ettlinger is a senior fellow at (and was the founding director of) the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire and is a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. He is the co-author, along with economist Robert Lynch, of the recent paper published by the Carsey School, “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation” (pdf).
According to Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice:
“Here we have another proof point that shows that mass deportations are not just cruel but would harm U.S.-born workers, kill jobs, and spike inflation. It will harm our entire economy. The more people hear about Trump’s signature economic and immigration plan, the more people will turn against it. Michael Ettlinger’s op-ed and his research is an important contribution to our understanding of this potential disaster.”
Read below for key excerpts from the Boston Globe op-ed by Michael Ettlinger, “Trump’s plan to vaporize the economy”:
“What would happen if 22 percent of America’s farmworkers vanished from the workforce? Would workers from across the country flock to the cotton fields of Texas, the sugar fields of Florida, and the peanut farms of Georgia to take low-paying jobs in the blazing heat? Or would production drop; would other workers in agribusiness lose their jobs and take pay cuts as their industry declined; would prices for consumers go up and imports increase?
What would happen if 15 percent of construction workers disappeared? Would a million American workers drop everything to pour concrete and climb scaffolds to swing hammers? Or would construction decline, companies downsize, and the cost of housing go up?
What would happen if 8 percent of service workers leave, including child-care providers? Are there others waiting in the wings to provide affordable child care for working parents? Or would parents have to quit their jobs to care for their children? What would happen if 8 percent of manufacturing workers or 6 percent of transportation workers left their jobs?
If former president Donald Trump is elected president, we will find out because when he talks about “mass deportation” and proposes the “largest deportation effort in American history” it means taking out the 5 percent of the American workforce that are unauthorized immigrants — concentrated in industries where they play unique roles and are irreplaceable. We don’t, however, have to wait for a second Trump term to know what would happen. Economists have looked at past deportation efforts and calculated the impact if we did it again at the scale Trump proposes.
…Whether it was the 1920s and 1930s, the 1960s, or the 2000s and 2010s, deportation has been bad for Americans. It has damaged the economy, cost jobs, boosted unemployment, and brought down wages.
Given that dismal history, it’s not surprising economists project grim outcomes from future mass deportations. Estimates of how much the economy would shrink, which vary according to what the researchers assume about the levels of deportation and other economic factors, range from 2.6 percent to 6.2 percent — roughly between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. … As in the past, US-born workers would take a hit. Removing 7.5 million undocumented workers would slash the national hours worked by 3.6 percent. … Inflation would rise — by as much as 3 percentage points — and tax collections would go down by $100 billion a year.
…The idea that deportation helps US citizens has always been an illusion. It’s never worked before and it wouldn’t work this time.”
