Washington, DC- During a briefing on the latino vote held by America’s Voice yesterday, two prominent public opinion and polling professionals gave insight into their current research on the state of play regarding Latino voters and midterm elections. Fernand Amadi, managing partner of Bendixen & Amandi, and Matt Barreto, President and co-founder of BSP Research challenged the current narrative from the right that Hispanic voters by-and-large are shifting their support from the Democratic party to Republicans. They stress that there is no measurable or widespread realignment of Latino voters and that issues including abortion are proving to be key motivating factors, especially for young Latinos, driving them to stay with Democrats as much or more than they have in previous cycles.
Suzanne Gamboa of NBC News covered Amandi and Barreto’s remarks and their findings in her piece on the briefing:
“Fernand Amandi, a principal with Bendixen & Amandi, said in the key states of Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania — which have competitive gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races this year — Latinos favor keeping abortion legal by large margins: by 30 points in Arizona, 40 in Nevada and 41 points in Pennsylvania. Those numbers are ‘signs that to me suggest Republicans overreached badly and are alienating the Hispanic vote,’ Amandi said[…]
If the performance of Latino voters with Barack Obama in 2012 — when he got 70% of the Latino vote — is used as the measuring stick, there has been erosion for Democrats at the presidential level. But [Amandi] said his recent polling shows that it would be exaggerated to speak of a demise of the Hispanic votes with the Democratic Party […] Latinos who said the overturning of Roe v. Wade would impact their voting decision in the November midterm elections were more likely to say they’d vote Democrat. Forty-five percent of all Hispanic voters in Arizona said they were more likely to vote Democrat, 40% in Nevada and 45% in Pennsylvania. A much smaller percentage, 15% said they were more motivated to vote Republican and the rest said the ruling would have no impact[…]
In U.S. Senate races, Democratic candidates lead with Hispanic voters in those states with margins that are more similar to their leads in 2018 than 2010. In gubernatorial races, candidates also hold large leads with Latino voters, the polling data showed. Amandi said his polling showed tremendous enthusiasm for voting and projected a ‘record Hispanic turnout in terms of numbers in this election.’”
According to Vanessa Cárdenas, Deputy Director of America’s Voice, who moderated the briefing:
“Reality check: There is no great realignment of the Latino vote going on. While the punditocracy and Republicans like to say Hispanic voters are running from Democrats, the evidence points in the opposite direction. Especially in key 2022 Senate and gubernatorial states, Latinos are demonstrating strong aversion to GOP extremism on key issues like abortion, guns and immigration. This echoes findings from the recent UnidosUS/Mi Familia Vota Education Fund poll that showed guns and abortion are key issues this cycle and that white nationalist ties, support for the January 6 riots and opposition to immigration reform remain key liabilities for GOP candidates. Rather than repeating GOP talking points, pundits and the media need to uplift accurate information that exposes the Right’s efforts to divide and instill fear in our electorate.”
