tags: Blog

New Infographics: The Latino Voter Threshold In 2016 Battleground States

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New infographics from Latino Decisions highlight the power of the Latino vote in key 2016 battleground states — and it’s not looking good for the GOP.

Latino Decisions recently found that under the most likely 2016 scenario, the GOP Presidential nominee would need the vote of 47 percent of Latinos nationally to win a majority of the popular vote.

Applying that same scenario to key battleground states, Latino Decisions finds that the most likely “Latino voter threshold” needed by the GOP is as follows:

44% in Colorado


47% in Florida


42% in New Mexico


45% in Nevada


43% in Ohio


46% in Virginia


The scenarios and results, which are described fully in this Latino Decisions blog post and detailed slide presentation, are modeled on a combination of historical, census and exit polling data about the likely size, composition, and party preference of the 2016 electorate.

Don’t agree with the estimates? Enter your own estimates about the composition of the 2016 electorate, here.