In case it isn’t crystal clear to Republicans that they have a demographic problem, and that their years-long alienation of Latino and minority voters will come back to haunt them, the Center for American Progress has released this study on the GOP’s significant obstacles in 2016.
The number of minority voters is increasing, as are their participation rates, while the number of white voters is decreasing. CAP looked at three scenarios for how minority voters might turn out in 2016 — the factors are a) what percentage of minority voters turn out to vote, and b) what the Republican/Democrat breakdown is amongst those voters. All of them end up with Republicans getting routed. Here are the scenarios:
1) Racial and ethnic groups turn out to vote at 2012 levels and vote for Republicans and Democrats at 2012 levels. Democrats would win in this scenario 347-191 in the Electoral College.
2) Racial and ethnic groups turn out at 2012 levels, but vote at 2004 levels (when George W. Bush was reelected). Democrats would win 291-247 in the Electoral College.
3) Racial and ethnic groups turn out at 2012 levels, but whites vote at 2012 levels, while racial minorities vote at 2004 levels. Democrats would win 303-235 in the Electoral College.
As has been growing clearer for years, the GOP has a major demographic problem that it must address, unless it wants to cease being a national party. Yet Congressional Republicans still show no interest in becoming a party that welcomes more diverse voters.
