The costs and consequences of Trump’s signature mass deportation pledge includes taking legal status away from as many people as possible to make them deportable
Washington, DC — The Trump campaign’s signature policy pledge of unsparing mass deportations is the subject of renewed criticism and attention in recent days, including via the American Immigration Council report on the staggering costs of mass deportation.
According to Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice:
“With one month to go until Election Day, the scope and potential catastrophic damage of Donald Trump’s signature mass deportation policy is coming into sharper focus. Trump is reiterating his pledge to deport Haitians with legal status and this week, Trump’s allies are arguing their case in court to strip DACA protections from Dreamers. It’s clear Trump and his allies want to make as many immigrants as possible deportable, no matter their current legal status or deep roots in this nation. Economists and experts are highlighting the costs and consequences of this massive deportation and family separation agenda, which would ripple well beyond immigrant communities and would rip apart American families, terrorize communities and devastate the U.S. economy for native and immigrant working men and women alike. No wonder Trump and JD Vance have refused to answer multiple debate questions or provide the specifics of their toxic policy vision for America.”
Leading voices have been ramping up attention to the scope, costs, and consequences of this mass deportation agenda, including:
Francis Wilkinson column in Bloomberg Opinion, “Mass Deportation Isn’t Just Cruel, It’s Expensive,” noting in part:
“Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, have made clear their intention to rid the nation of undocumented immigrants, sometimes using explicitly Nazi rhetoric about “vermin” who are “poisoning the blood of our country” to drive the point home. Trump has publicly promised the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”
…The former president last week noted that his unprecedented attack would not be restricted to the undocumented … The prospect of dragnets and concentration camps — “vast holding facilities,” as [Stephen] Miller calls them — excites both the MAGA leadership and base, who seem undaunted by projected costs.
…The cost of destroying families and communities is not factored into the American Immigration Council report, but it’s sure to be significant. Most undocumented immigrants in the US have been in the nation for more than a decade. They are not newcomers; they have roots. And as the debate moderator’s question implied, some of those roots are attached to American children.
…Trump’s promises of recreating the past are rarely as explicit as his vow to reproduce in American communities deportation scenes reminiscent of 1930s Europe … The financial costs of mass deportation can only be enormous, with devastating effects on immigrant-dependent industries, including agriculture and construction. But money can’t possibly measure an obsession so atavistic.”
Jamelle Bouie column in The New York Times, “The One Thing Not Named Trump That Trump Cares About,” noting in part:
“If Trump is a classic American confidence man, then mass deportation is his miracle tonic — a magical tincture that treats all ailments and cures all maladies. And like any traveling salesman, Trump is careful not to mention the side effects of this potent treatment. But not only are there side effects; the potion doesn’t treat the disease and may kill the patient.
It is obvious that mass deportation would be a humanitarian disaster — if past precedent is any indication of future results, the forced migration and detention of millions of people is very likely to kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of those caught in the dragnet of involuntary removal. If put into place, the plan would destroy communities and tear families apart. And given Trump’s hostility to birthright citizenship, there is every reason to think that his deportation regime would fall on American citizens as well, especially those with ties to the undocumented.
A little less obvious is the extent to which mass deportation would plunge the United States into economic darkness … At the low estimate, then, a mass deportation program would produce — for all Americans — a social and economic crisis comparable to the Great Recession. At the high estimate, it would produce an economic and social crisis that dwarfs anything experienced by Americans since the Great Depression.”
Marcela García column in The Boston Globe, “The price tag of mass deportations? $315 billion,” noting in part,
“Deporting millions would reduce the US gross domestic product by as much as 6.8 percent and remove 4.6 percent of the labor force, severely impacting the construction, agriculture, and hospitality industries.
…There would be, of course, large humanitarian costs. Just imagine the scenes that would unfold across the country: Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, National Guard members, and other law enforcement officers arresting people at their homes or workplaces. The report also noted that mass deportation would separate 4 million mixed-status families, directly affecting 8.5 million American citizens.
…I’m more inclined to take the pragmatic view here and admit that there’s no way millions of immigrants will be expelled should Trump take office. However, as I have argued before, that doesn’t mean a second Trump administration won’t try to move in that direction and, in the process, inflict lasting economic and moral damage to the country.”
Philip Bump analysis in The Washington Post, “Whom does Trump plan to deport? Whomever Trump wants to deport,” noting in part:
“Trump’s answer gives the lie to his and his running mate’s insistences that they are targeting immigrants in the country illegally, much less that their focus is on those who’ve committed crimes.
…It is by now well-established that the process of identifying, detaining and removing millions of people from the country would be enormously challenging and destabilizing, both economically and to individual communities. What Trump’s and Vance’s claims have reinforced is that it would also be arbitrary, with legal immigrants viewed as undesirable to the president and his supporters slated for ouster … The issue has never really been about protecting the country or American citizens. If it had been, Trump wouldn’t make false claims about the scale and danger of immigrants to the United States. The issue, instead, is that it is politically useful to Trump to make those false claims and that Trump appears to have a personal aversion to immigrants from the Caribbean, Africa and Latin America.”
Additional Reads and Resources
- American Immigration Council report on the costs of mass deportation finds it would cause GDP to drop by 4.2-6.8%, which is more than the Great Recession. The full report and findings are worth reading and available here.
- America’s Voice press briefing last week on the economic, logistical, community, and family consequences of mass deportation, featuring a range of experts highlighting why the proposed unsparing mass deportations would be devastating for all of America. Watch the briefing here.
- America’s Voice analysis, “Trump’s Team Real Scheme Revealed: A Pledge to Deport Immigrants with LEGAL Status”
- Read The Boston Globe op-ed from leading expert Michael Ettlinger, “Trump’s plan to vaporize the economy” and find related economic analyses: “Literature Review on the Economic Consequences of the Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants,” by Robert G. Lynch (Washington College – Department of Economics) and Michael Ettlinger (University of New Hampshire) and “The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation” by Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger.
