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New Latino Electoral Influence Model for 2012

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Latino Decisions Analysis Quantifies Influence of the Latino Vote in Upcoming Elections 

Today, political scientists from Latino Decisions released a new Latino electoral influence model for 2012 in a conference call with reporters and other interested parties. Supported by America’s Voice Education Fund, the new model will allow political observers to fully understand how the Latino vote could impact key Presidential, Senate and gubernatorial races in 2012 and beyond.  The model uses historical turnout information for different demographic groups and real time polling data to develop those different scenarios. 

An online interactive map using this model is planned for release this summer.  Users will be able to manipulate the map based on different scenarios, and it will also be kept current using up to date polling information.  

In announcing the project, Matt Barreto, Principal, Latino Decisions and an Adjunct Professor of political science at the University of Washington, said, “By taking account of historical voting trends, and up to the minute polling data, we can accurately model where and how Latinos will influence the 2012 election, state by state.  And of course there is not a one-size fits all approach, but rather unique individual processes in each state that become clear in the model we have developed.  Across a wide range of states, we find quite clear evidence that the Latino vote will be very decisive in 2012.”

Said Lynn Tramonte, Deputy Director, America’s Voice Education Fund “The Latino Decisions model makes it crystal clear: neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party can afford to ignore our country’s changing demographics.  With every election cycle, the Latino vote is growing and spreading out across the map. 

“At this point the key question for both parties in 2012 is about turnout.  Will disillusionment over jobs, and the lack of progress on immigration reform, keep Latino voters home?  Or will they break new records and new ground standing up for their families and their communities?

“It’s too soon to have the answers, but this model lets us imagine the possibilities.” 

Also on the call were, Gary Segura, Principal, Latino Decisions and Professor at Stanford University and Justin Gross, Chief Statistician, Latino Decisions.

For a copy of the report click here

Media Interviews: To schedule media interviews about this project, please contact Pili Tobar at (202) 463-8602 ext. 308 / ptobar@americasvoiceonline.org

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