Washington, DC – Now that it is clear that the Democrats will retain the Senate on the strength of Senate wins for Mark Kelly in Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada – powered by overwhelming Latino support in both states – leading post-election observers are highlighting that MAGA extremism, including Republicans’ radicalization on immigration, turned an election with pro-GOP fundamentals into a surprisingly good midterm cycle for Democrats. On the immigration front in particular, the 2022 midterms showed that – as in the past election cycles of 2017, 2018, and 2020 – the GOP’s embrace of nativism, anti-immigrant fear mongering and dangerous conspiracies spoke to their radicalized base, but alienated the majority of the electorate, including Latino voters who played a big role in numerous contests.
Now, as the Congress returns to Washington for a lame-duck session, the pressure on Democrats and Republicans to deliver on immigration is mounting. The fate of DACA recipients remains perilous after successful attempts in the courts by Republicans threatens to outlaw the popular and successful program that has allowed hundreds of thousands of Dreamers to live and work legally in the U.S.
With DACA recipients likely to start losing status once the court cases play out in 2023, the question for Senate Republicans is, having suffered another stinging rejection by following the Stephen Miller playbook on immigration: do they want to insulate themselves on the issue and protect Republican candidates in 2024? Or will Republicans continue to let Miller and his fellow radical nativists lead them into the cul-de-sac of extremism?
That means they have precious little time to act on House-passed bills that legalize Dreamers, DACA recipients, farm workers and others and make a deal with Democrats to protect immigrants, especially if Rep. Kevin McCarthy assumes the Speaker’s gavel in the House and follows through on his pledge to block any and all bills leading to legal status in the next Congress.
The analysis that a hardline on immigration was again a political loser for Republicans is clear:
- AZ and NV Senate results are proof points on the limits of GOP anti-immigrant extremism: Arizona Republican Blake Masters ran hard on nativism, including opposition to Dreamers, and mainstreamed dangerous white nationalist conspiracies in a series of vile “replacement” and “invasion” ads. Meanwhile, Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt joined Nevada onto a lawsuit challenging the expansion of DACA, ran radio ads in Las Vegas and Elko touting his hostility to Dreamers, and embraced a version of the replacement theory on the campaign trail. In the face of this extremism, both Senate Democratic incumbents Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto embraced a pro-legalization, pro-border security message that connected with the strong majority of Arizona and Nevada voters and each maintained an outspoken pro-Dreamer position.
- Three House races that show how MAGA extremism, including the radicalization on immigration, failed in a big way for the GOP:
- WA-03: Voters rejected extremism in favor of a daughter of immigrants. Even after Joe Kent, who was publicly aligned with violent white nationalists, won a surprise victory in the Republican primary against incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler, Kent was heavily favored to win. Kent did not meaningfully distance himself from his white nationalist association and instead campaigned on the racist “invasion” and “replacement” conspiracies. Kent lost this R+11 district to self-described “rural Democrat” and “daughter of an immigrant” Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
- OH-09: Republican J.R. Majewski was the definition of a MAGA Republican. After attending the January 6th rally in D.C. that led to the assault on the U.S. Capital that left five dead, Majewski used his first political ad to gesture at the need for more political violence. He also echoed the deadly white nationalist conspiracy about a so-called migrant “invasion” and campaigned on his top score from the anti-immigrant NumbersUSA. Majewski’s extremism turned this competitive district the GOP eyed as a top pickup opportunity into a 14-point loss to Rep. Marcy Kaptur.
- PA-08: GOP candidate Jim Bognet is an anti-immigrant zealot and protégé of renowned restrictionist and failed candidate Lou Barletta. Bogent ran hard on nativism, convinced it would be the decisive issue in his election. Bognet employed “invasion” rhetoric and lost in this battleground district for the second time after making his extremism on immigration the centerpiece of his campaign. While reiterating the need for security at the border, Democratic incumbent Rep. Matthew Cartwright was also clear about the need for comprehensive reform and warned of Bogent and his fellow Republicans’ attempt to “arouse ethnic animosity” with their anti-immigrant attacks.
- In her victory speech, Senator Cortez Masto gain leaned in on Dreamers and immigration: “l’ll never give up fighting for our immigrant families. That means a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, our TPS holders, our essential workers and our farm workers.. I will work with anyone, ANYONE, to ensure they are treated with dignity.”
- Washington Post writer Greg Sargent: “Now that Mark Kelly has won the Arizona Senate race, we shouldn’t let anyone forget that Blake Masters ran one of the ugliest anti-immigrant campaigns in the country, including truly vile ‘invasion’ and ‘great replacement’ language.” Earlier this week, Sargent wrote, “Invasion language did little for Republicans,” exploring Arizona and other examples where GOP efforts to run on nativism lost at the ballot box.
- MSNBC political analyst Jonathan Alter on Republicans’ failed anti-immigrant focus: “They wasted hundreds of millions on an issue that had just failed in 2018. They will likely try it again because ‘the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.’ INSANE!!”
- Washington Post writer Paul Waldman in “Arizona Democrats chalk up their big night to GOP focus on immigration: “Though Republicans wouldn’t use those terms, immigration was clearly the beginning and end of their strategy in Arizona this year. If you went to any GOP campaign event in Arizona lately, you would have heard a litany of horrors about the border as candidates Kari Lake and Blake Masters painted a nightmarish picture of murder and mayhem pouring into American communities … In Arizona as elsewhere, through victory and defeat, Republicans’ faith in the electoral power of the immigration issue has been unwavering. And all indications are that whatever else happens between now and 2024, that isn’t going to change.”
- Boston Globe columnist Marcela García: “While choices by Florida’s Latino voters are an imperfect source to extrapolate national narratives from, the state serves both as a warning and a perfect example for Democrats about the importance of sustained and earlier outreach to Latino voters. More important, Democrats need to deliver for Hispanics, especially on immigration, an issue Democrats blatantly ignored in their midterm messaging. For instance, what is President Biden going to do about Dreamers and DACA, which is likely to be terminated by the courts? All the Latinos nationwide who voted Democrat now want to know.
- Sergio Gonzales, executive director of The Immigration Hub in Arizona Republic: “Latinos spoke for themselves: saying no to MAGA extremism; and casting decisive votes for candidates who ran on policies like a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farm workers, and undocumented essential workers. Given that the federal courts are preparing to strike down DACA, stripping protections away from hard-working young people across the country, it’s now time for Congress to deliver for Latinos. Democrats need to show up for Latino families by protecting Dreamers and farm workers, and Republicans would be wise to walk away from the hate politics of Stephen Miller and Donald Trump that continue to repel Latinos in a big way.”
- Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice in Arizona Republic: “Latino voters saw what we at America’s Voice saw, the shocking investment of Republican candidates in hateful and anti-immigration messages, often echoing the ‘invasion’ and ‘white replacement’ rhetoric of the nationalist right-wing. By all indications, the economy and inflation were the key issues for voters this year, but Republican extremism and fear-mongering on border security and immigration hurt Republican candidates with Latinos and a lot of others outside of the MAGA base.”
In a statement, Vanessa Cárdenas, Executive Director of America’s Voice added:
“Republicans have a choice to make, enter the 2024 election cycle defending their hardline on immigration again or come to the table and reach a deal on immigration. Next year, Senate Republicans will have to contend with Republican hardliners if Rep. McCarthy controls the House as Speaker, so Senate Republicans only have a few weeks to reach a deal with Democrats to protect Dreamers and other immigrants essential to the U.S. economy. Democrats cannot rest on their laurels either, but have to recognize the mandate they received from voters who favor immigration reform and deliver. The American people were clear about where they stand on immigrants and immigration and rejected the MAGA approach. Now both parties are on the clock to take concrete legislative action before the end of the year.”