To: America’s Voice
From: Tom K. Wong, Director, U.S. Immigration Policy Center (USIPC) at UC San Diego
Date: October 21, 2024
Subject: Context about impact of mass deportations significantly decreases support, based on polling conducted for America’s Voice in October
When registered voters are asked about support for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, support significantly decreases when they are given context about the impact that such a policy would have on long-term residents, the likely family separation that would ensue, and the resultant negative economic impact.
To begin, when asked about support for a policy of the “mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants,” 46 percent of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” support while 38 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” oppose. This translates into net support of +8 points. However, not only does less than a majority of registered voters support the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, but support decreases in a statistically significant way when respondents are randomly assigned to the same question, but posed with context.
For example, when we add that the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants would “include people who have lived in the United States for decades, paid taxes, and built lives for themselves and their families. Many of these people have spouses and children who are American citizens, but they cannot get citizenship themselves,” only 37 percent of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” support while 46 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” oppose. This translates into net support of -9 points. In other words, when context is added about the impact that mass deportations would have on long-term residents, support decreases by 9 percent and net positive support turns into net negative support.
Moreover, when we add that mass deportations would “rip American families apart. We’ve seen the terrible effects of family separation in previous years, and no one wants to go back to that. Many undocumented people have children or spouses who are U.S. citizens and a policy of mass deportation would separate these parents from their children,” only 38 percent of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” support while 46 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” oppose. This translates into net support of -8 points. Again, when context is added about the likely family separation that would ensue from a policy of the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, support decreases by 8 percent and net positive support turns into net negative support.
Lastly, when we add that the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants “will be an economic disaster for the U.S., and cause our economy to shrink by nearly 6%, a loss of $1.6 trillion. The policy would also cause prices to rise all across our economy, leading to devastating inflation. Deporting millions of people will lead to labor shortages and price increases, with food being left to rot in the fields with no one to pick it, and making it even harder to build an affordable home. On top of that, mass deportation will cost more than $400 billion, adding to our national debt,” only 39 percent of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” support while 45 percent “strongly” or “somewhat” oppose. This translates into net support of -6 points. Once again, when context is added about the resultant negative economic impact from a policy of mass deportation, support decreases by 7 percent and net positive support turns into net negative support.
Support for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants significantly decreases among registered Republicans when they are given context about the impact that such a policy would have on long-term residents, the likely family separation that would ensue, and the resultant negative economic impact. Baseline support for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants among registered Republicans is 79 percent and net support is +67 points. When context is given about the impact that the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants would have on long-term residents, support decreases by 14 percent and net support decreases by 23 points. When context is given about the likely family separation that would ensue from a policy of the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, support decreases by 16 percent and net support decreases by 23 points. When context is given about the resultant negative economic impact from a policy of mass deportation, support decreases by 13 percent and net support decreases by 20 points.
Support also significantly decreases among registered Independents. Baseline support for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants among registered Independents is 42 percent and net support is only +1 points. When context is given about the impact that the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants would have on long-term residents, support decreases by 10 percent and net support decreases by 18 points, dropping from net support of +1 points to net support of -17 points. When context is given about the likely family separation that would ensue from a policy of the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, support decreases by 11 percent and net support decreases by 19 points, dropping from net support of +1 points to net support of -18 points. When context is given about the resultant negative economic impact from a policy of mass deportation, support decreases by 8 percent and net support decreases by 14 points, dropping from net support of +1 points to net support of -13 points.
Support also significantly decreases among non-Hispanic voters. Baseline support for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants among non-Hispanic voters is 47 percent and net support is +10 points. When context is given about the impact that the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants would have on long-term residents, support decreases by 11 percent and net support decreases by 20 points, dropping from net support of +10 points to net support of -10 points. When context is given about the likely family separation that would ensue from a policy of the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, support decreases by 8 percent and net support decreases by 17 points, dropping from net support of +10 points to net support of -7 points. When context is given about the resultant negative economic impact from a policy of mass deportation, support decreases by 7 percent and net support decreases by 14 points, dropping from net support of +10 points to net support of -4 points.
Support also significantly decreases among older voters (50+). Baseline support for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants among older voters (50+) is 52 percent and net support is +15 points. When context is given about the impact that the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants would have on long-term residents, support decreases by 13 percent and net support decreases by 24 points, dropping from net support of +15 points to net support of -9 points. When context is given about the likely family separation that would ensue from a policy of the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, support decreases by 9 percent and net support decreases by 16 points, dropping from net support of +15 points to net support of -1 points. When context is given about the resultant negative economic impact from a policy of mass deportation, support decreases by 6 percent and net support decreases by 13 points.
Notes on the sample and methodology: This survey was fielded online from October 5– 9, 2024. The sample size is 6,209 registered voters. The sample consists of at least 500 registered voters from each of the following ten states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin. In addition, we completed an oversample of at least 100 Hispanic registered voters in each of these states. The sample was recruited through Cint’s Lucid Marketplace, employing quota sampling to increase representativeness. Respondent-level weights were applied in two stages: first, sampling weights were applied to account for the sampling strategy (equal samples in each state as well as the oversample of Hispanic respondents); second, post-stratification weights were applied to account for remaining observable sample imbalances on age, gender, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education (all obtained from ACS 2023 estimates with CVAP as the denominator) and party ID (using CCES 2022 estimates). Margin-of-error for the full sample is approximately ±1.25% (with 0.95 confidence). Margin-of-error for the state-level results are ±4% (0.95 confidence). Margin-of-error for the Hispanic sample across all ten states is ±2.56% (with 0.95 confidence). Margins-of-error for the state-level Hispanic subgroups range from ±6.3% to ±9.8% commensurate with the state’s population size and share of the state population that is Hispanic.
