OVERVIEW
As part of our 2020 election strategy, America’s Voice has conducted polling in five target states including (1) North Carolina, (2) Texas, (3) Georgia, (4) Florida, and (5) Arizona. The purpose of the polling is to determine how candidates, campaigns, and other advocacy groups should discuss the issue of immigration with persuadable voters in swing states.
Our 2020 election ad campaign is a series of Facebook ads designed to test the messaging our polling suggested would be the most effective in these states to provide our trainees with tangible ideas for how to run ads and talk to voters.
testing method
We ran a total of 4 ads in Arizona over a two-week period. Our messaging was based off of a general state poll prepared by GSG with our Arizona toplines and benchmark. These polls suggested that immigration is not a losing issue. With rare exception, nearly all segments in the Arizona electorate consistently support moderate to progressive policy options, humane treatment of immigrants, and security without abuse. Attacks on McSally are also most successful when her policies are linked to Trump.
Our test audience is somewhat left-leaning voters in Arizona, ages 18-65. We did not narrow down any additional testing based on location or gender, but there is evidence in our polling that women in non-rural areas would find these ads most appealing.
Top tier
______________________________________________________________________________________
What’s on the Ballot?
The purpose of this ad was to create a predominantly negative feeling towards the incumbent and mention DACA specifically and family separation, the issues that poll most positively in immigration.
Winning Language:
“Senator McSally has done nothing to stop Trump’s cruel and inhumane immigration policies like family separation or the termination of DACA. It’s time to vote out senators who support policies rooted in xenophobia and racism. Vote Senator McSally out this November.”
Analysis:
This ad did well in Arizona likely because– as our polling shows– the humane treatment of immigrants is strongly supported in the state and voters prefer security without abuse. Voters in the state are well-educated on these immigration issues, they openly reject racism and xenophobia, and they demand real policy solutions to scapegoating.
It should be noted that this was our most immigration-policy heavy ad, which did not do as well in other swing states. This indicates voters in Arizona understand immigration and care more about the issue.
Middle tier
______________________________________________________________________________________
Magic Ad
The purpose of this ad was to create a predominantly negative narrative around how Senator McSally has handled the pandemic and to associate her policies with Donald Trump.
Winning Language:
“America is strongest when we work together. It’s time to stop the racist and xenophobic rhetoric from politicians like Senator McSally. Vote together this November and vote Senator McSally out.”
Analysis:
This ad likely did well for a number or reasons. First, voters in Arizona rate healthcare access and solutions for the pandemic as their top issue. Second, attacks on McSally are most successful when her policies are linked to Trump. Although this ad does not outright do so, the intention is clearly to make voters think of Trump.
It should also be noted that this ad is colorful and well-made, which might have helped it in the algorithm.
______________________________________________________________________________________
All of Us
The purpose of this ad was to create a predominantly positive feeling of unity around the pandemic, and to call on voters to reject racist scapegoating many GOP candidates have employed.
Winning Language:
“America is strongest when we work together. It’s time to stop the racist and xenophobic rhetoric from politicians like Senator McSally. Vote together this November and vote Senator McSally out.”
Analysis:
This ranked very closely to our “Magic Ad.” It is also a predominantly positive message that focuses on unity above GOP division and distraction. It does not mention the pandemic specifically, but it was designed to associate the election with the crisis. Our polling suggested that voters in Arizona voters care about this issue above all else, which is likely why this ad did fine.
Again other factors to consider include that this ad was short, colorful, and optimistic.
bottom tier
______________________________________________________________________________________
Attacking Immigrants
The purpose of this ad was to combine the narrative that Senator McSally has attacked immigrants during the pandemic when many immigrant workers are essential to keeping us afloat during the crisis.
Winning Language:
“Immigrant workers are working hard to fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. But Trump and Senator McSally are trying to deport immigrants and keep them out of the country. They want us to think immigrants are bad for America, so we won’t think about how bad Republicans are at their jobs. Don’t be fooled.”
Analysis:
This ad was incredibly straightforward and the only graphic we tested. This ad likely suffered because it did not focus on the immigration issues Arizona voters care most about such as security without abuse or family-separation. Although the ad mentioned Trump, he was not the focus which also might have contributed to its lower score.
Because this was our only graphic tested in the state, it might be worth noting that it did not do as well.
