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Latino Voters

CA and NY Analyses of Latino Vote: Exit Polls Got it Wrong

Pieces in LA Times and NY Daily News Highlight New Precinct-Level Analyses in California and New York Find that Edison Exit Polls Overestimated Latino Support for Trump Two new op-eds detail precinct-level analyses of how the Latino electorate in California and New York actually voted in 2016, adding powerful evidence to the argument that the Edison exit polls overestimated … Continue reading »

ICYMI: “Study: Trump Fared Worse than Romney in Florida Hispanic Vote”

A new op-ed published in The Hill from Ali Valenzuela, an Assistant Professor of Politics and Latino Studies at Princeton University, and Tyler Reny, a Ph.D. student at the UCLA Department of Political Science, summarizes their recent analysis of voting precincts in Florida to explore how the state’s Hispanic electorate actually voted in 2016. Despite the national exit … Continue reading »

Lessons from Nevada: Harry Reid and In-State Ground Game Offer Lessons for Democrats Moving Forward

Nevada stands out as one of the 2016 successes for Democrats, after serving as the Party’s “Latino firewall” in 2010.  This happened because the state is home to smart and sophisticated Latino voter engagement efforts as well as a staunch Latino and immigrant champion, Harry Reid. As Democrats plan the way forward, two recent pieces highlight … Continue reading »

ICYMI: “Donald Trump Did Not Win 34% Of Latino Vote In Texas. He Won Much Less.”

Analysis of State Voting Data Continues to Show Strong Latino Support for Clinton, Contrary to National Exit Polls In a new Washington Post piece, Francisco Pedraza and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta challenge the national exit poll claim that 29% of Hispanic voters nationally, and 34% in Texas, supported Donald Trump. Analyzing data from 4,372 precincts across Texas, covering all regions of … Continue reading »

Caucus Chair Xavier Becerra To House Dems: “Exit Polls Misrepresent The Latino Vote”

After a year and a half of ugly rhetoric from Donald Trump, Latino voters turned out in historic numbers this past Presidential election — and they were decisively in Hillary Clinton’s corner, 79-18 according to expert pollsters Latino Decisions. It’s why the exit polling we’ve seen coming from by Edison Research — which gives Trump … Continue reading »

Why the Dispute over Latino Exit Poll Matters: Latinos Delivered in 2016 and One Exit Poll that Shows Otherwise Effectively Disenfranchises a Community at Risk

As we have noted, the controversy over accurate Latino polling is not a mere academic exercise or a story simply about methodology. At a time when the Latino and immigrant communities are vulnerable and fearful in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election, an accurate assessment of the community’s preferences in the 2016 elections and its electoral … Continue reading »

Latino Vote Share in 2016: How a Myth Becomes a “Fact”

Latinos turned out in record numbers this election, and supported Clinton over Trump by an historic margin (79% to 18%). Unfortunately, a faulty exit poll number is undermining Latinos’ strong performance this cycle. The exit poll is just one survey, it is not actual results  It is not fact, it is a survey providing an … Continue reading »

ICYMI: Pilar Marrero and La Opinión Understand the Latino Community – and Understand Why Exit Polls of Latinos Missed the Mark

Earlier today, we highlighted how leading English language media outlets and observers were recognizing that the national exit polls failed to accurately capture Latino voters’ record turnout and margins on behalf of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 elections.  We also want to highlight the work of a leading Latina journalist – Pilar Marrero of La Opinión – who gets … Continue reading »

Why it Matters that National Exit Polls (Again) Missed Latinos

Latinos Delivered, Yet Erroneous Exit Polls Unfairly Diminish Their Impact Latino voters showed up in record numbers and delivered record margins on behalf of Democratic candidates in 2016. Per the Latino Decisions election eve poll, Latinos backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 78-19% margin. However, if you rely on the national exit poll numbers … Continue reading »

Women Of Color Make History In Senate, House, State Races

Women of color won historic victories in Senate, House, and state races across the nation this past week. In Nevada, former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican Congressman Joe Heck to become the first Latina elected to the US Senate. Let’s take a moment to celebrate Catherine Cortez Masto, the first latina elected … Continue reading »