America’s Voice Releases Election Scorecard With Wins in 3 of 3 “Races to Watch for Supporters of Immigration Reform”
Among the key post-election storylines in Florida is the following: as the state’s sizeable Latino population grows more diverse with every election cycle, the Republican Party is losing their lock on Latino voters who were once mainly conservative and Cuban. While the Cuban-American voters who have supported Republicans for decades remain an influential voting bloc in Florida, the Latino electorate is changing and becoming more Democratic—both because the non-Cuban population is growing and because younger generations of Cuban-American voters are no longer reliably Republican. The new Latino electorate in Florida cares deeply about immigration reform, and Republicans who oppose it are alienating a growing number of Florida voters. According to election-eve polling of Latino voters in Florida conducted by Latino Decisions, Latino voters favored incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson over Rep. Connie Mack (R) by a 59%-40% margin and favored Democratic candidates in congressional House races, 58%-42%.
Over the course of the 2012 election cycle, America’s Voice tracked a range of competitive House and Senate races where Latino, Asian, and naturalized citizen voters could prove decisive and where immigration reform was a key contrast between the candidates. This included Florida’s Senate race as well as two competitive Florida House races where immigration played an important role in determining the outcomes (Florida’s 18th and 22nd Congressional districts). With the election results finally settled, it’s clear that anti-immigration reform Republicans who failed to keep pace with the changing demographics of their state and districts lost big in 2012.
Perhaps this is why Florida Governor Rick Scott engaged in an unprecedented partisan attack on the voting rights of certain citizens, including Latinos, in 2012. While Scott’s efforts caused voters great inconvenience and long lines at the polls, it didn’t manage to deter African-American and Latino turnout enough to save Republican Senate nominee, Rep. Connie Mack IV, a former moderate on immigration turned hardliner, or the extremist Republicans running in the House including, Rep. Allen West and Adam Hasner.
Below, find recaps of the Florida races America’s Voice monitored throughout the 2012 cycle, as well as links to the complete documents tracking results in a number of states. We include relevant demographic information, a description of the role immigration played in the campaign, and a snapshot of each race’s outcome and what it means moving forward.
FLORIDA SENATE RACE
Candidates: Sen. Bill NELSON (D), incumbent v. Rep. Connie Mack IV (R)
Result: WIN FOR IMMIGRANTS
Rating: Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report, 10/4/12)
Latino Eligible Voter Population: 17.7% (Teixeira/Frey)
Asian Voting Age Population: 1.9% (Center for American Progress)
Final vote: Nelson 55.2%/Mack 42.2%
Latino vote: Nelson 59%/Mack 40%
(“Latino vote” is taken from Latino Decisions’ election-eve poll.)
Florida’s Latino community has long been a powerful force in state politics, constituting 17.7% of eligible voters. The Republican Senate nominee, Rep. Connie Mack IV, once showed some promise of becoming a moderate on immigration like his father, Senator Connie Mack III. In the spring of 2010, Mack IV actually spoke out against Arizona’s harsh SB 1070. But he soon fell in line with Republican Party positions on immigration, voting against the DREAM Act in December of 2010. (Three of Mack’s Hispanic colleagues in the Florida congressional delegation, Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart and Lincoln Diaz-Balart, co-sponsored and voted for DREAM.) Senator Bill Nelson (D), on the other hand, has a strong record in support of immigrants. He voted to end the GOP filibuster of the DREAM Act on December 18, 2010 and is a cosponsor of the legislation.
While Florida’s Latino community has leaned Republican for decades, the Latino electorate is changing and becoming more Democratic. Perhaps that is why Florida Governor Rick Scott engaged in an unprecedented partisan attack on the voting rights of certain citizens, including Latinos, in 2012. While Scott’s efforts caused voters great inconvenience and long lines at the polls, it didn’t manage to deter African-American and Latino turnout enough to save Mack and the Republicans—and with white voters only supporting Mack in slightly greater numbers than they supported Nelson, strong support for Nelson among African-Americans and non-Cuban Latinos made the difference. In the end, he cruised to re-election and will be able to fight for Florida’s immigrant community in the coming push for immigration reform.
For more, see America’s Voice’s Spotlight on Florida.
FL-18
Candidates: Patrick Murphy (D) v. Rep. Allen West (R), incumbent
Result: WIN FOR IMMIGRANTS
Rating: Toss Up (Cook Political Report, 10/25/12)
Latino Voting Age Population: 11.6%
Final vote: Murphy 50.3%/West 49.7%
Statewide Latino vote: Democrat 58%/Republican 42%
(“Statewide Latino vote” is taken from Latino Decisions’ election-eve poll, asking Latinos who they planned to vote for in the U.S. House race in their district.)
Rep. Allen West was one of the best-known members of the GOP’s freshman class in the 112th Congress, mostly because of the inflammatory remarks he made about many different groups, including immigrants, over the past several years. Last year, while talking about undocumented immigrants, West said “you have to repel invasions.” In June, West attacked the President’s DREAMer relief policy, asking “Is this one of those backdoor opportunities to allow people in the next five months to get the opportunity to vote?“
When Florida’s Congressional districts were redrawn in 2011 to reflect the growing Latino population, West moved districts, thinking that the less-diverse 18th District might be easier for a Republican to win than the new 22nd. But while he could run from the Latino vote, he couldn’t hide, and he was defeated by Democrat Patrick Murphy, a businessman whose views on immigration are the polar opposite of West’s. On his campaign website, Murphy stated, “I believe undocumented workers that have otherwise observed our laws should be given a reasonable path to legality.” He also “strongly” supports the DREAM Act.
After a protracted recount and threats of legal action, West finally conceded to Murphy on November 20th. Finally, residents of the 18th District can be proud of their representative in Congress.
FL-22
Candidates: Lois Frankel (D) v. Adam Hasner (R)
Result: WIN FOR IMMIGRANTS
Rating: Likely Democratic (Cook Political Report, 10/25/12)
Latino Voting Age Population: 17.2%
Final vote: Frankel 54.6%/Hasner 45.4%
Statewide Latino vote: Democrat 58%/Republican 42%
(“Statewide Latino vote” is taken from Latino Decisions’ election-eve poll, asking Latinos who they planned to vote for in the U.S. House race in their district.)
After this district was redrawn, Rep. Allen West (R) left to run in the 18th to improve his chances for re-election. Former State Rep. Adam Hasner initially ran in the Republican primary to face Bill Nelson in the U.S. Senate race, with the support of some far-right leaders. In that unsuccessful campaign, Hasner positioned himself as the toughest anti-immigrant voice in the state legislature. He eventually dropped out of the Senate race to run for Congress in the new 22nd District. Hasner’s House campaign website talked about the need to “[s]ecure America’s borders from illegal infiltration,” and he is firmly in the conspiracy wing of the anti-immigrant movement.
Hasner’s opponent was Lois Frankel, the Democratic former Mayor of West Palm Beach. At a candidate forum in September, she expressed support for the DREAM Act and a “fair and humane” way for undocumented immigrants to come forward to get legal status and, in some cases citizenship. Hasner disagreed, stating that we need to deal with this issue “sequentially”; i.e. secure the border and reform the legal system first. Only after we take these steps, he argued, should we consider other measures. Reassuringly for supporters of real and humane immigration reform, Frankel won the seat.
House Races Post-Election Scorecard Update: http://americasvoiceonline.org/research/americas-voice-releases-spotlight-on-house-races-to-watch-for-immigrant-and-latino-voters/
Senate Races Post-Election Scorecard Update: http://americasvoiceonline.org/research/state-spotlights-six-races-to-watch-for-immigration-reform-supporters/
America’s Voice — Harnessing the power of American voices and American values to win common sense immigration reform.
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