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Election Eve Poll in Eight States Reveals Key Facts About Latino Voters in 2010 Elections

America's Voice | Released on 11/02/2010

Latinos Turning Out in Response to Anti-Immigrant Campaigning

Washington, DC – Tonight, Latino Decisions will release election eve polling in eight states that shows immigration and anti-immigrant campaigning played a major role in mobilizing Latino voters this cycle.  This important research, conducted in eight states, will add a new dimension to publicly-available exit polls.  The data will reveal not only who Latinos voted for, but why

Results for AZ, CA, CO, FL IL, NM, NV, and TX will be available as the polls close in each state at http://latinodecisions.wordpress.com/.  The release schedule is as follows: FL and IL, 8pm Eastern; CO, NM, and TX, 9pm Eastern; AZ and NV, 10pm Eastern; CA, 11pm Eastern.

Latino Decisions will present full results, including national trends and analysis about the role of immigration in the 2012 presidential contest, on a conference call for reporters on Wednesday, November 3rd, at 1pm eastern.  Leaders from NCLR, SEIU, and America’s Voice will also be on the call to give their take on what the election results mean for the prospects for immigration reform in Congress, and Mi Familia Vota Civic Participation Campaign will outline the organization’s efforts to mobilize Latino voters this cycle.  For more information, or to schedule interviews with any of these organizations, contact their respective press offices or Michael Earls at (202) 494-8555 or press@americasvoiceonline.org.

FOR NOW, SOME KEY FINDINGS

  • Immigration is a top issue for Latino voters.  In every state, immigration was among the top two issues that voters want policymakers to address, ahead of education, housing, taxes, and other important issues.  Overall, 48% of Latino voters chose either “jobs” or “the economy” as a top concern, while 37% chose “immigration.”  In Arizona, immigration (45%) polled ahead of jobs and the economy together (41%). 
  • The issue of immigration, and anti-immigrant campaigning, played a crucial role in motivating Latino voters and determining who they voted for.   

o   When asked whether the issue of immigration was an important factor in their decision to vote and who to vote for, 60% of Latinos said it was either “the most important” issue or “one of the most important” issues.  Twenty-three percent said it was somewhat important to determining their vote, and only 14% said it was not.

o   When asked whether anti-immigrant or anti-Latino sentiment during the 2010 election season influenced their decision to vote, and who to vote for, 53% said it was either “the most important” issue or “one of the most important” issues.  Twenty-two percent said it was somewhat important to determining their vote, 17% said it was not, and 3% disagreed with the premise of the question.       

o   Clearly, many Latino voters feel that the divisive immigration debate and 2010 campaigns have fueled anti-Latino sentiment, and these attacks on immigrants and Latinos are spurring them to vote.

  • In Nevada and Arizona, two of the states with the most polarizing immigration debates going on now, sentiments were even stronger.  Fully 69% of Latino voters in both Arizona and Nevada said the immigration issue was one of the most important factors in their decision to vote, and who to vote for.  In Arizona, 40% said immigration was the single most important issue in their voting decisions, and 38% in Nevada said the same.
  • The vast majority of Latino voters oppose the Arizona anti-immigration law. Seventy-four percent of Latino voters oppose the Arizona immigration law, while 17% support it.  Only 9% have no opinion on the matter.     
  • Latino voters are showing up to give voice to their community, more than to support a specific party or candidate.  Forty-seven percent of Latino voters say they are voting in 2010 “to support and represent the Latino community,” versus 43% who are showing up to support a specific candidate.  However, there are some interesting differences in the states that will be revealed later tonight.    

Today, Latino voters in multiple states will help decide the outcome of a number of close races.  Visit the web site of Latino Decisions as the polls close for state by state data on who they voted for, and why.  The Latino Decisions web site also features the results of their weekly tracking polling over the past two months. 

Methodology: Latino Decisions poll of Latino voters was conducted from October 28-November 1, 2010 with “extremely likely” registered voters in eight states (AZ, CA, CO, FL IL, NM, NV, and TX).  Interviews were conducted by telephone in English and Spanish, at the discretion of the respondent.  Data are weighted to known CPS estimates for state and language, and the weighted sample produced 400 surveys per state and 3,200 surveys in all eight states, for a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent (state data) and +/- 1.7 percent (national data).  More detail on methodology is posted online.  This poll was sponsored by NCLR, SEIU, and America’s Voice.  

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